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Tuesday, January 25, 2000, updated at 17:43(GMT+8)
Editorial World Military Situation at Turn of Century

HIGHLIGHTS: As an important component of the comprehensive national strength of a country and the final means for solving international disputes, the military's role in the historical process has not been weakened.

Following are excerpts of an article from the Army Daily: In the early period after the conclusion of the Cold War, when an unprecedented relaxation and disarmament emerged worldwide, it was the people's general view that the position of the military in state security and its role in handling international affairs had declined notably. However, practice after the Cold War, particularly the outbreak of the Kosovo War, tells people that as an important component of the comprehensive national strength of a country and the final means for solving international disputes, the military's role in the new historical process has not been weakened. As we closely watch the profound changes taken place in the world's political, economic, scientific and technological fields, we must also be concerned about and study the world's military development.

Judgment of threat is the basic foundation for a country to formulate military strategy and determine the orientation for the building of armed forces and for the development of armaments. The global post-cold war situation indicates that a world war is still far away from us. This is because: first, after World War II, along with the vigorous development of the national liberation movement, the way by which big powers, particularly superpowers, contended for spheres of influence, had changed from expanding their own spheres of influence mainly through contention for colonies into competition for shares of international raw materials markets, commodity markets and financial markets. The acquisition of market shares can be realized without going through the way of war. Second, the massive destruction of modern wars has restrained the outbreak of world war. Third, there are not many, or even no, countries that really have the ability to fight a world war. One of the reasons why the Kosovo war launched by US-led NATO which withdrew their troops in a hurry under the condition without completely achieving the war aim they had declared before the war was that the United States and other NATO member states could not afford the war consumption.

However, today's world is by no means at peace. After the Cold War, armed conflicts and local wars have never ceased and have far exceeded those during the period of the Cold War in terms of the frequency of their outbreak, their destruction, the number of participating countries and their negative effect on the world situation.

Viewed from the regions of war outbreak, local wars erupted after the Cold War were concentrated mostly in the Balkan and African regions; and from the distribution of countries, local wars were concentrated in countries experiencing the transition of political systems, such as East European countries and some union states of the former Soviet Union, as well as African countries. Viewed from the causes of wars, the situation was extremely complicated: After the disintegration of the two polar patterns, some contradictions concealed by the contention between the East and the West had come to light; disputes over territory and maritime rights and interests left over from history erupted again; the scramble for resources had also triggered some conflicts and wars. What could really produce major influence on the global strategic situation were the local wars sparked by the new interventionism pushed by US-led Western countries. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the United States became the sole superpower in today's world, its power politics and hegemonism have been furthered, it has pushed new interventionism abroad and frequently adopted military action overseas. The basic aim of the United States' use of military forces abroad is to sell its concepts of value and social system; its fundamental theoretical basis is "human rights are transcending sovereignty"; and its basic way is "relying on military alliance". Wars triggered by new interventionism are the important reasons for the turbulence of today's world.

Military strategy is the strategy for planning war preparations and army building, main countries around the world are adjusting their respective military strategies in accordance with the changed international security environment and the main threat confronting them.

The main target of military strategic readjustment. Taken as a whole, the military strategic adjustment after the Cold War was aimed at pursuing the same goal, i.e., striving for strategic initiative in the 21st century. However, there are great differences in the concrete goals of various main countries. For example, as the sole superpower in today's world, the United States' objective of military strategic adjustment is to ensure its absolute military superiority in the next century and establishment of a new international order under its leadership. Russia's main goal is to guarantee its status as a big military power, thereby laying a foundation for comprehensively reinvigorating its big power status. Japan's main target is, through appropriately developing military force and participating in the military activities of the international community, to improve its status as a big country.

The main causes of military strategic adjustment. First is the tremendous change of the international security environment. These changes have sparked worldwide new contradictions, new divergences and conflicts and even wars. Second is the profound change in the military area caused by the injection of large amounts of high and new technologies. Third are the opportunity and challenge facing various countries under the new situation. Along with the development and change in the world strategic pattern and the world economic globalization and the deepening of regional orientation, the 21st century will be an era full of competitions and development opportunities, anyone who has made full strategic preparation will be able to become the winner in competition in the new century.

The main characteristics of military strategic adjustment. First is advance nature. For this, stress is placed on long-term planning, the span of time has usually been extended from the original five years to 10-30 years. Second is completeness. Third is comprehensiveness. Fourth is initiative.

In recent years, in order to implement their military strategic goals, various countries have paid great attention to the building of armed forces, with the stress placed on exploring and establishing the operational theory geared to the 21st century. First is combined operation by various services and arms. Second is implementing non-contacting attack. Third is all-directional emergency reaction. Fourth is for information to run through the whole process of operation.

Adjusting institutional establishments and building up capable and efficient military forces. First is to reduce the number of troops. More than 8 million have been cut from the total number of the world armed forces since the beginning of the 1990s. Second is reducing the commanding levels, with some countries practicing a three-level commanding system. Third is simplifying the commanding organizations.

Increasing military input to guarantee one's own superiority. In recent years, the rate of decrease in military spending has been slowed down notably. Particularly after the Kosovo war, whether big world powers, or small regional countries have, to varying degrees, increased military expenditures, thereby making it possible for the world military spending to enter a period of comparatively rapid growth.

The United States has always been a big military spending country, in their massive military budget, US armed forces have notably increased their investment in the high-tech field, reaching US$60 billion annually, and the figure will increase to US$112 billion in the next six years.

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