World Development Trend Under US Global Strategy(I) 　　By Xiao Feng 　　Following is a slightly abridged translation of this monograph (Part I): The US-led NATO's use of force against Yugoslavia and its missile attack on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade are not isolated and accidental incidents, but are an inevitable reflection of US global strategy. What is US global strategy? According to what the Clinton administration said in its "national defense report", it is that in the next 10-15 years, the United States will maintain its active involvement in global affairs, this means it is actively pushing through its "new interventionism", and seeks hegemonism. In the past six months, the United States has accelerated the pace of its global strategy readjustment. On the West line, it has dished out the NATO "new strategic concept", turning the defensive military bloc during the Cold War period into a transcendent regional action, offensive military and political organization. To try out this new strategy, following US-British practice of "bombing diplomacy" against Iraq, the United States brought together NATO members to launch wanton bombing of Yugoslavia, which developed to outrageous missile attack on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. On the East line, the United States has strengthened the Japan-US security defense system, extending the Japan-US "new defense cooperation guidelines" to the extent of making it applicable to Japan's "surrounding areas", it has stepped up the development of the "regional missile defense system" and planned to include in it China's Taiwan. The readjustment of US global strategy has obviously brought three major impacts on the world: First is attempting to use a "single-polar world" to block the development of a "multi-polar world", so as to slow down the development of the world's "multi-polar" pattern. Second is using "human rights" as a pretext to violate "sovereignty" and push its hegemony, thus entailing a rise in the factors of war and instability and seriously obstructing the world's surging tide of "peace and development". Third is bypassing the United Nations and violating the international law, impacting the international coordinating mechanism, throwing the international community into a more disordered state and making it beset with more complicated contradictions. 　　The break-up of the Soviet Union and the conclusion of the Cold War marked the end of the two-polar world pattern, the world began to develop in the "multi-polarization" direction. A few years ago, there was an over-optimistic estimation of the "multi-polarization" development trend, thinking that the "multi-polarization" development trend "will become increasingly quicker", there was even the thinking that the multi-polar pattern seemed to have completely taken shape. After NATO's use of force against Yugoslavia and its missile attack on the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade, there was a tendency of going to another extreme, claiming that now the "single pole is supreme", and that the world remains a single-pole world. The two viewpoints are somewhat partial. Judged from the present situation, the world "multi-polarization" pattern has not as yet completely taken shape, the development trend, however, cannot be altered. Recent developments only show that the world's multi-polar development trend has obviously slowed down, the pole of the United States has further strengthened, US attempt to establish a single-pole world wherein it dominates everything cannot succeed, reasons for this are given as follows: 　　Firstly, although there is a notable rise in the current European-US cooperation coordination, contradictions and differences between them remain. As war drags on in Yugoslavia, NATO's internal divergences will become more clearly. 　　While Europe has not gained any benefit from its use of force against Yugoslavia, the United States has cashed in on the war to get a windfall and has easily resisted the challenge posed by the Euro. The refugee tide caused by the war has aroused worries among neighboring countries in Europe. The national pent-up hatred of the Balkans will become factors of Europe's long-term instability. The negative effect of the ecological environmental damage caused by the war will come to surface. These situations indicate the US ambition for world domination, in the final analysis, contravenes the fundamental interests of European countries and regions, Europe is unlikely to be monolithic, nor is it likely to form a unitary pole with the United States. 　　Secondly, NATO's eastward expansion has reached up to Russia's door, and the former brazenly launched armed attack on Yugoslavia, thus dashing Russia's illusion of jointly establishing a European security system together with NATO. Finding itself in the state wherein "flowers fall off, do what one may", it dare not break up and fall out with the West, it is weak and so is forced to make concessions. However, as a nation which historically defeated Napoleon and Hitler during World War II, it will not be long ordered about by others. Russia's economic strength has been weakened, and its political situation is unstable, but its military force, particularly its nuclear arsenal, remains. Once it feels refreshed after a breathing spell, its relationship with the West, particularly its contradiction with US hegemonism, will become sharpened, it will not accept the US attempt to build up a "single-pole world" pattern. 　　Thirdly and finally, Japan-US economic conflict has become outstanding, the United States fears that it will lose to Japan. In recent years, out of their mutual needs in political and military areas, i.e., Japan's Right-wing forces want to achieve its aim of becoming a political and military big power through aid from the United States, while the United States also attempts to stabilize its "defense line" in East Asia through help from Japan. As a result, both sides have drawn closer to each other. However, US-Japan contradictions continue to exist, so do the contradictions between Japan and East Asian countries which historically were invaded by Japan. If Japan-US alliance is going too far, it will cause Japan to become isolated among the East Asian countries and evoke opposition from the people at home. The United States, which has learned a lesson from the Pearl Harbor incident, will not set its mind completely at ease with regard to the re-emergence of Japanese militarism. From a long-term point of view, Japan-US contradiction will also develop. 　　Briefly stated, the world is beset with very complicated contradictions, the "multi-polarization" trend is irresistible. It is impossible for the United States to succeed in its attempt to establish a "single-pole world" pattern. Indepth 1999-05-31 Page6 Full Story in Chinese