China to have 6,691 civil aircraft in 2032

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China to have 6,691 civil aircraft in 2032

(People's Daily Online) 17:03, September 26, 2013

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Edited and translated by Liang Jun, People's Daily Online

By the end of 2032, China's civil aircraft fleet is expected to reach 6,691, 3.4 times of that of 2012, among which, the number of passenger airplanes amounting to 5,893 and cargo planes 798, according to China Aviation Industry Corporation (AVIC).

The AVIC issued the report on the market forecast of Chinese civil aircraft during the 15th Aviation Expo which kicked off at the China National Convention Center in Beijing on Wednesday.

According to the report, considering the characteristics of China's route network, the fleet in the future will be mainly composed of single aisle aircraft on the main truck, at the same time the ratio of wide-body airplanes on the main truck and regional aircrafts will also increase.

In the two decades to come, China will add 5,288 civil aircraft, including 4,396 large jetliners and 892 regional planes to meet the increasing transportation and the retirement of old aircraft, according to the report.

The AVIC said the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) would gradually open the permission to build airlines and it was expected that more airlines to enter the market. Meanwhile, foreign airlines have also increased their efforts to expand in the second-tier cities.

In response to the current situation, major airlines have begun to explore the business model of low-cost carriers. In order to boost the development of regional airlines, the CAAC will continue to subsidize the regional airports and airlines.

Although the air cargo market remains sluggish, there are prospects in express business, and the private courier firms have sped up the pace to build cargo airlines.

In the long run, China's sustained economic growth, acceleration of urbanization and the upgrade of resident consumption will be conductive to the sustainable development of air transport. But shortage of pilots, airports and en route congestion as well as the competition of high-speed railway will pose adverse effect on the development of China's air transportation. At the same time, the high fuel price and stringent environmental requirements will push the airlines to quicken steps replacing the sub-standard old aircraft.

Based on the analysis of the future development environment of air transport, the AVIC forecasted that in the next 20 years, China's aviation market will see moderately rapid development, with the average annual 7.8 percent growth of passenger turnover and 10 percent increase of cargo and mail turnover.

Source: 中航工业预计2032年中国民用飞机将达6691架