China's grain output reached 602 million tons last year, while according to the recently released China Food and Nutrition Development Program (2014-2020), as of the end 2020 China's grain output will stabilize at 550 million tons or more. Why is the target far below the current output? Zhang Hui, deputy director of the development planning department under the Ministry of Agriculture, gave the following explanation.

550 million is a bottom-line goal

The target of 550 million tons or more is mainly based on the following three factors.

First, the grain in the program refers mainly to cereals. So the target means the output of cereals will reach at least 550 million tons.

Second, it is a bottom-line goal. In 2013, China's grain output reached 602 million tons. Within these figures the total output of wheat, corn and rice amounted to 543 million tons. So the goal is a lower limit target. No upper limit was set in the program.

Third, the goal represents a continuation of China's planning targets released in 2008 and 2009, which set 540 million tons and 550 million tons respectively as the goal in 2020.

Self-sufficiency of grain to secure China's basic demand

China is a populous country and solving the problem of feeding more than one billion people has always been a top priority in ensuring national security. The volume of cereals traded on the international market represents only half of the volume consumed in China. There are therefore limited food resources China can import. Therefore, self-sufficiency of grain is the strategic base for ensuring national food security.

China will not import large quantities of food in the future

Imported grain in 2013 reached 15 million tons while imported soybeans reached 60 million tons, Zhang attributed this to the following two factors.

First is domestic demand. With the improvement in levels of consumption, people have increasing demands for food diversity and food quality.

Second, prices of grain on the international market are relatively lower.