Where Loya Jirga Leads To?

Home>>World

Last updated at: (Beijing Time) Monday, June 10, 2002

Where Loya Jirga Leads To?

DISCUSSION

CHINESE

SEND TO FRIEND

Suffering from 23 years of war, the Afghan people now place great hopes on the Emergency Loya Jirga (grand assembly), which is scheduled to open on Monday and last fora week, to elect a transitional government to safeguard peace and stability in the war-torn country.

However, the sudden decision by the Special Commission for Convening the Emergency Loya Jirga to increase 50 additional seatsand the still outstanding agenda cast slight shadows over the forthcoming Afghan traditional assembly, reminding people that theresult of the Loya Jirga remains wide open.

The election of the transitional government's leader and formation of the cabinet will be the two main focuses of the Loya Jirga.

Chairman of the Special Commission Professor Ismael Qasemyar said on Saturday that the Loya Jirga will first elect the head of state and the new leader will propose the structure of the transitional government and nominate ministers to the Loya Jirga delegates, who will make the final decision.

He also mentioned that candidates to election must get the support from at least 150 delegates, 10 percent of the total 1,551.

Although it is still not clear who will eventually make themselves candidate to the Loya Jirga, some analysts forecast that interim government leader Hamid Karzai will enjoy a remarkable edge in the coming election with little suspense.

As delegate from the west province of Herat Dr. Saleh Sulguqi put it, the candidates' previous performance in the political circles will decide their chances in the election.

In the past six months, Karzai, an energetic Pashtun leader, guided the war-ravaged country through thorns and made substantialefforts in consolidating peace and stability, helping children back to school, eradicating poppies and facilitating the public health care.

Moreover, Karzai showed his talents in dealing with different ethnic groups and factions in Afghanistan and also won the endorsement of the international society. All these will give him a strong boost in the coming election.

There will be little chance for some of the potential candidates, such as former president Burhanuddin Rabbani and leader of Mahaz-i-Milli-Islami (the National Islamic Front) Sayed Ahamad Gailani, to launch a strong challenge to Karzai, for most of the Afghan people have already been fed up with these warlords and party leaders.

Former King Mohammad Zahir Shah, who was ousted in a coup in 1973 and spent almost 30 years in Rome, is another key player in the Loya Jirga. It is noticed that most of the people respect the former king as the father of Afghanistan and a symbol of national unity, while they do not want a revival of kingdom.

Compared with the election of the transitional government's leader, the formation of a new cabinet remains more uncertain regarding to the redistribution of power among all political factions, religious and ethnic groups, and once powerful military commanders.

The Bonn Agreement, which was signed last December by four Afghan factions and installed the Karzai-led Interim Administration, did bring peace effectively to the war-torn country in the post-Taliban era.

But it bears outstanding unbalance in the distribution of powerin the government, which many people complained that ethnic minority Tajiks were over-represented in the interim authority.

The post of defense minister in the new government will be one of the main focuses. Marshal Muhammad Qassem Fahim, defense minister of the current government, said on Saturday that the Northern Alliance deserves the posts being occupied, because the alliance made great contribution to the wars against the Taliban regime and the Al-Qaeda, hinting that he and other former NorthernAlliance members would not give up the key posts in the transitional government.

It is evident that the leader of the transitional government will face a dilemma: to reshuffle the cabinet members, especially the key posts, or to keep the status quo for the sake of fragile peace.

The first choice could face a strong opposition from former Northern Alliance members and even lead to chaos in the future. While the second could strongly weaken the power base of the new leader and result in low efficiency, the same problems the interimgovernment is facing now.

It is also noted that the role of the Loya Jirga delegates willbe double-edged. On the one hand, the delegates' strong desire forpeace will keep the Loya Jirga process on the right track.

On the other hand, the delegates can bring more uncertainties to the formation of the transitional government, for they will take the final decisions about the structure of the transitional government and cabinet members, which are to be proposed and nominated by the new leader.

Questions?Comments? Click here

China Likely to Launch the Lowest SAR in the World ( 2 Messages)

China Hopes Japan Will Keep Commitment to Non-nuclear Principles ( 2 Messages)

Asymmetric Trial of Strength: Commentary ( 21 Messages)

US Taiwan Acts Jeopardize Sino-US Ties: Analysis ( 76 Messages)

'Kunlun' Jet-engine to Power China's Airforce ( 54 Messages)