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Economists list key tasks for China in 2017

(Global Times)    08:13, March 03, 2017

China will remain the biggest engine of global economic growth in 2017, economists said, as the continuation of economic reforms will guarantee sustainable growth of the Chinese economy in the years to come.

"China's economy expanded by 6.7 percent last year, a good start for the country's 13th Five-Year Plan(2016-20)," Wang Guoqing, spokesperson for the fifth session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), said at a press conference Thursday, prior to the opening of China's two sessions on Friday.

The Chinese economy saw improvements both in quality and efficiency in 2016, Wang said.

China's top legislature, the National People's Congress, and the top political advisory body, the CPPCC, will kick off their annual sessions, also known as two sessions, over the weekend in Beijing. Legislators and policymakers will lay out major targets for economic and social development during the meetings.

The dominant themes will remain the same, such as supply-side structural reform and achieving a balance among various policy targets like growth stabilization, structural reform, social welfare and risk prevention, Zhu Haibin, chief economist of JP Morgan China, said in a statement sent to the Global Times Wednesday.

Other tasks include the use of proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, promoting a higher degree of openness, and developing a green economy, according to Zhu.

Economists at JP Morgan expect that the government will keep the growth target for this year unchanged at between 6.5 percent and 7 percent.

Others at investment banking group UBS predicted that the growth target will be set at around 6.5 percent, according to a statement on Thursday.

"We can expect the economy to grow at no less than 6.5 percent this year, if consumption can grow at more than 10 percent and investment at no lower than 8.5 percent," Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist at the China Center for International Economic Exchange, told the Global Times Thursday.

Xu said the economy is stabilizing as China posted a GDP growth of 6.8 percent in the last quarter of 2016, and the rate could be maintained in the first quarter of this year, indicating the growth trajectory may well be already in the second phase of an L-shaped recovery.

Xu said it is important that all economic work in 2017 is carried out around the central theme of supply-side structural reform.

  Deepening reforms

Experts noted that the Chinese economy remains the single largest contributor to world GDP growth, without which global growth will fall into recession.

To keep the world's second-largest economy growing at a stable rate, however, requires further deepening of reforms in an all-round fashion, experts said.

Zhu said the upside factors in 2017 include growing financial services and private investment, and the downside factors include a slide in real estate investment and auto sales. He said balancing between growth and risk management is still a key challenge for Chinese policymakers.

"The supply-side structural reform has made progress in 2016, generating a new growth momentum, as reflected in the rebound in prices of a wide category of industrial products. Producers are more enthusiastic now," Niu Li, director of the Macroeconomic Research Office at the State Information Center, told the Global Times Thursday.

In 2016, China shed more than 65 million and 290 million tons of inefficient steel and coal-mining capacity, respectively, and moved 700,000 workers from downsized industries to new jobs.

  Risk prevention

However, the issue of overcapacity still persists and the supply and demand dynamics need to be further balanced, noted Niu.

"The campaign against overcapacity might be expanded into other sectors from coal and steel, but we expect the market forces, instead of administrative measures, to play a bigger role in 2017, especially in markets not dominated by State-owned firms," Niu said, adding that fiscal funds will be used more efficiently this year.

Other issues that might create downward pressure include a decline in private sector investment growth, the nation's relatively high institutional costs, logistics costs, taxes and fees, and slowing income growth.

Supply-side structural reform among State-owned enterprises (SOEs) will enter into an active period in 2017, said Li Jin, head of the China Enterprise Research Institute.

"Structural adjustments and resources allocation will be the highlight of the year, and 2017 could be a year of breakthroughs in SOE reforms," Li told the Global Times Thursday.

(For the latest China news, Please follow People's Daily on Twitter and Facebook)(Web editor: Jiang Jie, Bianji)

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