HK's Economic Growth Positive in Second Half of 1999: Economist

HONG KONG, July 29 (Xinhua) -- A local economic analyst depicted a rosy picture for Hong Kong's economic prospect in the second half of the year while estimating that the gross domestic product (GDP) would enjoy a two percent positive growth in the fourth quarter of 1999.

Speaking at a press briefing on the economic forecast for the second half of 1999, Gilbert K. Chu, executive director of the Sun Hung Kai Securities Ltd., said Thursday that Hong Kong's GDP is estimated to stop decline in the third quarter of the year and to have a positive growth in the fourth quarter.

Hong Kong's economic recovery is on its way amidst a prudent optimistic outlook for the world economic situation in the second half of the year, Chu said.

The Japanese yen would be strong while the expected interest rate increase in the United States would be kept at a moderate level of 0.50 percent, Chu estimated.

The commodity prices would be firm on consumption recovery and investors' confidence would be maintained by stable global interest rate, Chu continued.

According to Chu, the downturn trend of the year-on-year re- export of Hong Kong would be reversed by the end of the year while the consumer spending stabilizes.

Bank loans for use in Hong Kong would grow moderately on a year- on-year basis supported by stable interest rates, said Chu. As for the stock market, Chu said that the Hang Seng Index will be around the level of 14,000 points.