China's Autumn Harvest Likely to Fall

BEIJING, July 25 (Xinhua) -- First-hand information from farms nationwide is convincing statisticians at the State Statistical Bureau (SSB) that it is unlikely the approaching autumn harvest will be bigger than last year's.

Sources said that the reason was not clear why the government had not yet released accurate statistics about the grain yields in 1998, but the yields could hit an unprecedented high of over 500 million tons despite a drop of 4.45 million tons in the summer harvests and the severe flooding disaster in autumn last year.

"This year it is very difficult for the grain yields to surpass last year's level. Grain cultivation has shrunk by 780,000 hectares nationwide in 1999, Xian Zude, deputy director-general of the SSB's Rural Survey Organization, was quoted by today's China Daily as saying.

The current oversupply of spring wheat in the north, wheat grown south of the Yangtze River, and low-grade early rice in particular has dampened farmers' enthusiasm to produce more. They are also disheartened by the fact that the State purchase prices for such cereals for the first time fell below the average price offered for this summers' grain.

The price of crops are also dropping on the domestic market after several consecutive years of bumper harvests, Xian said.

During the first six months of this year, farmers' income increased 2.1 percent to 998 yuan (120 U.S.dollars). Taking inflation into account, the real increase of their income in the period was 4.7 percent, the same as the rise in this summer's grain harvest, which reached 118.5 million tons.