News Analysis: Hopes for Resuming Cyprus Talks Still Exist

U.N. special envoy for Cyprus Alvaro de Soto, who ended his eight-day visit here Wednesday, has failed to bring the island's two sides back to the negotiating table, but hopes for resuming their talks still exist.

During his stay in the island, de Soto had six meetings with Cypriot President Glafcos Clerides and four meetings with Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash separately.

Moreover, the special envoy, on behalf of U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan, invited the two men to have separate meetings with Annan in New York on September 12.

Clerides has accepted the invitation, but Denktash has refused the offer on the ground that there is no "necessary foundation" for him to attend the meeting. According to de Soto, there is " considerable distance" between the positions of the two sides.

Cyprus, a Mediterranean island, has been divided since Turkey's invasion in 1974 following an abortive coup seeking union with Greece.

The U.N. has sponsored five rounds of proximity talks between Clerides and Denktash since December 1999 in an effort to seek a solution to the Cyprus issue under a bi-zonal, bi-communal federation formula, which is supported by the Greek Cypriot side.

Denktash abandoned the talks last November, demanding a recognition of his breakaway state in northern Cyprus. Since then, he has repeatedly claimed that he would not return to the negotiating table unless his request is accepted.

Although public statements from both sides have showed that nothing has changed in their positions, it is believed that there are reasons for some progress to be made in resuming their talks in the future.

The main factor, among other things, is the aspiration of both Nicosia and Ankara to join the European Union (EU).

The argument is that since Turkey wants to join the EU, Ankara has to do something for a solution to the Cyprus issue that the EU would like to see before the island's accession.

On the Greek Cypriot side, never before is it so keen to seek a settlement of the issue. This is expected to make them to show more flexibility.

The reason for the willingness of the Greek Cypriots is Brussels' attitude about accepting the divided island to the European family.

EU official statements all agree that a solution is not a precondition for Cyprus' accession. But member states generally oppose the idea of its entry before a solution is found.

If the Greek Cypriots fail to show their willingness, the EU could close the door for an accession, or at least delay it, arguing that Nicosia is not doing all it could to achieve a settlement of the issue.

But if Clerides does enough to satisfy Brussels, and Denktash sticks to his "two states" position, Cyprus would join the EU as a divided island.

Moreover, the Greek Cypriot side's sole entry into the EU would mean that there would be two rather than just one EU member who might veto Turkey's accession: Greece and Cyprus. It would also mean that Turkey would find itself in military occupation of an EU member state, if the accession comprises Cyprus' both sides.

Besides, the U.S., Ankara's traditional and still strongest ally, has recently renewed pressure on Turkey for moving closer to Europe. The Bush's administration wants, observers agree, its Turkish counterpart to show a willingness on the Cyprus issue.

This approach, coupled with the Greek-Turkish rapprochement, is seen as creating a right mood for Turkey's compromise on the issue. During his two-day visit to Cyprus which ended Wednesday, Greek Foreign Minister George Papandreou urged the Turkish Cypriots, together with the Greek Cypriots, to join Cyprus' EU accession effort.

There also seems to be a delicate shift in relations between Ankara and Denktash. It is observed that Ankara is now also prompting Denktash to return to the negotiating table. A growing feeling in Turkey is that Denktash's little regime endangers the the aspiration of the whole Turkish nation to join the EU.






People's Daily Online --- http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/