News Analysis: Sharon Has Strategic Concerns in Visit to Russia

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon left for Moscow on Monday for his first official, three-day visit to Russia to discuss with Russian President Vladimir Putin and senior officials ways of easing Mideast tensions and issues of common concern.

Why did Sharon travel to Russia when the situation in the Middle East was tense after more than 11 months of bloody clashes with the Palestinians? Observers said that he had at least three major strategic considerations.

Firstly, Sharon would ask Russia to pressure Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat into accepting Israel's conditions for a ceasefire between the two sides as he thinks that if Israel could form a unified front with Russia, there would be little room for Arafat's international maneuvers.

Sharon's plan is possible as in the past few months Russia refrained form harsh criticism of Israeli attacks in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and stopped short of supporting the Palestinians' call for the dispatch of international monitors to the occupied Palestinian territories, analysts pointed out.

Considering Russia's historical relations with the Arab world, Sharon believed that Putin, who has indicated his intention to revive Moscow's role in the Mideast, would have a say in a Mideast ceasefire.

Secondly, Sharon wanted Russia to urge Iran to control the activities of the Lebanese resistance group Hezbollah, or Party of God, on the Israeli-Lebanese border.

Backed by Iran and Syria, Hezbollah spearheaded resistance to eventually force Israeli troop withdrawal from south Lebanon in May 2000, ending a 22-year occupation.

The group has also vowed to continue fighting against Israel as long as the Jewish state occupies the Shebaa Farms, a mountainous area which Beirut and Damascus say belongs to Lebanon.

Although Israel's northern border area is generally quiet since the withdrawal, Israeli intelligence reports have alleged that Hezbollah is on the verge of launching another wave of attacks.

Exhausted by the violence with the Palestinians, Israel does not want the situation in the north to flare up again. Furthermore, it is worried that any conflict with Hezbollah may spill over into an all-out war in the region.

So, Sharon hoped that his visit to Russia would help convince Moscow, which has close ties with Iran, to give a warning message to Tehran and Hezbollah.

Thirdly, Sharon would ask his host to halt the provision of nuclear technology information and advanced weapons to Iran, an archenemy of Israel and firm supporter of the Palestinians.

Israeli analysts believe that Iran's nuclear development has not yet reached the point of no-return and if Russia ceases the transfer of technology, a move Moscow has never admitted, Iran's procurement of nuclear weapons will be impossible.

Israeli television Channel One reported on Sunday that Israel will propose to Russia that it could join its aerospace and satellite projects to compensate for the loss caused by stopping selling military technology and weapons to Iran.

Besides the three considerations, Sharon also wanted to boost the relationship with Russia.

"Russia is a power with the ability to influence the (Mideast) area, and Israel has an interest in institutionalizing the relations with a great potential for cooperation," an Israeli diplomatic source said.






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