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News Analysis: Khatami to Bring Evolution Rather Than Revolution to Iran
Following his belated swearing-in ceremony Wednesday, Mohammad Khatami was formally invested as president of Iran amid series of domestic problems which he says far-reaching reform might help offer a remedy.
The 57-year-old Shiite cleric garnered over 21 million votes, or 77 percent of the total cast against nine other presidential candidates on the June 8 presidential elections, getting renewed mandate from the people to make the Islamic republic a more open civil society.
In a country mired in economic chaos and routine political quarrels, Khatami's re-election has raised hopes for extended reforms in all fields.
For his second term, the popular president is met with higher expectations from people who hunger for changes in a trouble-laden society, where political wrangling has sucked much of its energy to revive the shaky economy.
Khatami is expected to bring about a new Iran where the feuding arms of the state could cooperate, where journalists are no longer persecuted for carrying out their mission, where reformists will not be jailed for doing what conservatives dislike.
Pledging to work flat out to establish a "religious democracy" in Iran and never back out from his words, Khatami, however, has acknowledged that he shoulders "grave responsibilities."
Formidable tasks ahead, Khatami reiterated his commitment to " political, cultural, social and scientific development as a prerequisite for an economic upturn" in his inauguration speech.
Khatami is ambitious as he was and has outgrown naive projection that the path to his reform will be straight and smooth.
ECONOMY No.1 PAIN With common understanding with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Khatami said that he will put more efforts to tackle economic problems
Being the popular president's Achilles hill over the past four years, Iran's economic woes have been regarded as Khatami's weak points, assaulted by conservatives and his rivals during the election campaign.
By and large, Khatami is fortunate in a sense that changes in the world oil market have been in favor of Iran, but he is expected to do away with the current state of affairs, which show that Iran continues living off its natural resources.
He is expected to hand out a remedy for Iran's ailing economy, 80 percent of which relies on petrodollars, a fact that can make or break the Iranian economy.
In 2000, the inflation rate stood at 19.9 percent, foreign debts reached 9 billion U.S. dollars, and some 20 percent of its swelling 65 million population remained unemployed. These figures eclipsed much of his achievement recorded in the past four years.
Khatami has earlier said that any government coming to power over the next 10 years should give top priority to reining in unemployment, which hit young people hardest.
The keys to economic recovery are said to mobilize domestic capital and attract foreign investment, which has encountered curbs from the Iran and Libya Sanctions Act (ILSA), enacted by the U.S. in 1996 to ban foreign companies from making any major investment in the two countries' energy sector.
The act, which has recently been extended for another five years, will bring constant pain to Iran.
To make matters worse, Iran's prohibitions against foreign ownership have blocked the inflow of foreign investment, including those by the large expatriate Iranian community in the West.
The foreign-investment bills which have been passed in the Majlis (parliament) are at stake in the conservative Guardians Council (GC), the constitutional watchdog body.
Seeking to stimulate Iran's sluggish economy, Khatami said that members of his cabinet will be selected from meritocracy, regardless of their political inclinations, in order to make his cabinet strong.
Being politically savvy, Khatami is expected to balance political and economic reforms in his final four-year term in office and try to avoid being labeled as a lamed chief executive.
CONCORDANT EFFORTS URGED Since Khatami initiated the cultural and social liberalization and establishment of civil society in Iran after he came to power in 1997, conservatives have adopted a zero-tolerance police toward his blueprint to build a more democratic Islamic republic with open economy.
Reformers tend to mellow with their consecutive triumphs in ballot boxes, with Khatami's overwhelming win in June presidential elections being the latest case. But they are constantly tripped up by their unyielding conservative rivals, who still have a strong hold on the judiciary, army and media.
Even Khatami himself appeared helpless when he was innocently caught in a recent row between the reformist-majority Majlis and the conservative judiciary over the election of members of the GC.
The dispute had effectively blocked Khatami from kicking off his second term, as his investiture was postponed at the order of Khamenei, who has the final say in almost all state affairs.
Khatami has been publicly complaining about the frustrations of his job, the growing number of his jailed supporters, and the wholesale closure of newspapers.
So far, Khatami has proved himself unable to outmaneuver the conservatives who have been closing in on the reformists.
Mohammad Salamati, a close ally of Khatami, was stabbed and injured by unknown assailants on Monday. The police said that the attack was politically motivated.
The reformist Farsi-language daily Hambastegi (Solidarity) was suspended on Wednesday as Khatami was lamenting reporters' vulnerability and thus calling for tolerance.
"I'll try not give up to any pressures in my capacity to defend the basic rights of the people, legitimate freedoms and liberal press," Khatami said in his morale-boosting inauguration speech.
While the discordance among state organs is no secret to all, top officials have called for cooperation for the sake of Khatami's mission.
Majlis Speaker Mahdi Karrubi has underlined the need for unity, solidarity, tolerance and patience of the Iranian nation, in order to solve the existing problems.
Khamenei has also appealed to all officials, political groups, and the people to stop creating tensions and provocative actions.
But despite the call for harmony and democracy, the anti-reform elements might take less democratic measures to thwart Khatami's reform movement.
Reforms are on the way in Iran, but how far and fast can they go? Observers here say that Khatami has been, and will be obeying the game rule cautiously.
Khatami, a mid-ranking cleric and moderate reformer, might not wish to see fundamental changes in political status quo, which might risk miscarriage of his plan.
With limited room for him to maneuver, Khatami is expected to bring the evolution of the reform to Iran, rather than revolution.
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