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Sino-Japan Bilateral Trade Expected to Hit US$95b This Year
Despite the obvious slowdown in the world economic growth and the severity of the general trade environment, Sino-Japan bilateral trade still reported a fairly great growth in the first half of this year. Both import and export volume presented a two-digital increase. Although there will be some unfavorable factors in the second half of the year, it is still possible to create a new record for the whole year as long as the two governments adopt a consultative and promotional policy.
According to official Japanese statistics, the total volume of bilateral trade in the Jan-Jun period reached US$43.92 billion, up 13.4 percent over the same period last year. Of the total, Japan's export to China came to US$15.55 billion, up 15.3 percent; and imports, US$28.37 billion, up 12.4 percent.
In the first half of this year, Japan's gross exports decreased by 0.1 percent, while its exports to China witnessed a considerable growth of almost 30 percent, the growth rate of its imports from China also exceeded 20 percent, thus making China its second largest trade partner.
The report specially mentioned that there were two salient characteristics in the Sino-Japan trade in the first half of the year: first, Japan's exports of electromechanical products to China saw a substantial growth. The growth rate of the exports of such electromechanical products as communication, construction, transportation, office, precision and shipping equipment reached as high as 50-100 percent, a rarely seen growth for many years. This development indicates that there is not much change in the stable, mutually complementary economic and trade relations between China and Japan, Japanese enterprises' investment in China has been notably restored, giving rise to a new situation featuring the simultaneous expansion of investment and export. Although some frictions in China-Japan trade plus the continued cooling of the world economy have emerged in the second half of the year which will produce adverse effect on Sino-Japanese trade, Japanese enterprises' enthusiasm for investment cooperation with China is on the rise against the general background of China's impending accession to the WTO.
International Trade" analyzed that Sino-Japan trade is expected to hit a record high of US$95 billion in the whole of 2001 if there is no drastic change in the Yen Foreign Exchange Market in the coming six months.
Trade row may end soonThe recent Sino-Japan trade war may come to an end within the next four months, analysts say.
According to an article in the July 27 China Economic Times, experts are predicting that China will lift its "temporary protective tariffs" on Japanese automobiles, mobile phones and air conditioners in November.
Beijing imposed a 100 percent special tariff on these products on June 21 after Japan slapped hefty import duties on Chinese green onions, mushrooms and rush plants.
Observers say China is likely to lift its tariffs on or after Nov. 8; that is when Japan's emergency import duties are scheduled to end. Also, Beijing will be eager to be a fair-trading partner in the run-up to entry into the World Trade Organization, expected early next year.
An official with the China Anti-Dumping and Anti-Subsidy Investigation Organization, who asked not to be identified, said he believed the protective tariffs would not be in place "for long," although he would not specify a timetable.
He did say, however, that even after this particular trade dispute comes to an end and China enters the WTO, this does not mean Beijing could not continue to take such "protective measures." In fact, he said, such protective measures are allowed under WTO rules.
According to the official, adopting emergency tariffs is one of three ways WTO members can protect themselves. It is the only method used to protect domestic manufacturers under a fair trading environment, he said.
However, the prerequisites for imposing such tariffs are stricter than that for anti-dumping measures. Under fair trading conditions, cuts in tariffs are likely to result in an absolute or comparative surge in imports and could cause serious harm to domestic manufacturers.
Under such circumstances, WTO members are allowed to protect domestic industries by limiting import volume and increasing import tariffs, in order to facilitate a domestic industrial structural adjustment.
The official said that he expects China to encounter more trade disputes after WTO entry, as they are quite common among trading partners, the story said.
By PD Online Staff Member Du Minghua
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