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Roundup: No Breakthrough Expected at Climate Change Talks in Bonn
Representatives from some 180 countries will meet here from July 16-27 to resume the sixth session of the Conference of the Parties (COP6) to the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change to seek ratification of the Kyoto Protocol.
The protocol, signed in 1997 in Japan's Kyoto, is the first real attempt by the international community to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, mostly carbon dioxide (CO2) from fossil fuel burning. Scientists say the gases are heating the earth's atmosphere with potentially disastrous consequences.
The average global temperature is likely to rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius in this century if the greenhouse gas emissions are not curbed, a scientific body set up by the United Nations has said.
Among the most serious consequences of the climate change will be the melting of polar ice caps, desertification, and lower-lying countries sinking below rising sea levels, scientists warned.
But no signals can be seen for a breakthrough on the Kyoto treaty in Bonn.
The United States, the biggest greenhouse gases emitter in the world, announced its withdrawal from the treaty in March, which gave a fatal blow to the vulnerable treaty aimed at curbing greenhouse gases.
The Kyoto treaty sets targets for developed countries to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2 percent over 1990 levels by 2012. For the treaty to be ratified, 55 nations representing 55 percent of industrialized countries' emissions are needed.
Trying to find an excuse for rejecting the treaty it signed in 1998, the Unites States claimed that the pact would harm its economy and was unfair because it does not set limitations for developing countries to curb their emissions.
The stance of the Americans seems unshakable. Europe has made many attempts to coax the U.S. back to the treaty but failed.
European Union Environment Commissioner Margot Wallstrom said the U.S. opposition to the Kyoto treaty made it unlikely to reach a deal in Bonn. She did not expect the return of the U.S., saying it would take a long time for it to come around.
Without the U.S., it is still theoretically possible to get the Kyoto treaty ratified if other countries that negotiated formerly alongside with the U.S. such as Japan, Canada, and Australia could say yes to the treaty.
As one of the biggest emitters, Japan produces 8.5 percent of global greenhouse gases and is viewed as a key factor in keeping the Kyoto treaty alive after the U.S. retreat.
But Japan has given mixed signals recently. While claiming it wants to salvage the pact bearing the name of its ancient capital, Japan has given no clear indication whether it will ratify the treaty without the U.S.
According to Japanese press reports, Japan is planning to submit a proposal to the upcoming conference in Bonn to reach an agreement at the next climate meeting or even later, which indicates that Japan has abandoned the option of ratifying the pact in Bonn.
The signal from Australia is more disheartening. Despite the attempts by a European Union (EU) delegation to persuade the Australians to agree to the pact earlier this month, the answer from Canberra is clear: Australia will continue to support the United States and the pact without the biggest emitter will be meaningless.
Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chretien has pledged to work with the EU on the pact, but has not agreed to step forward without Washington.
Analysts say that while keen to protect their industries from producing greenhouse gases, the three countries are also under pressure by Washington to follow it.
Yet the Bonn conference will not be a "do-or-die" affair, experts say. The European countries have vowed to act without the U.S.. Even a partial agreement would be better than nothing, EU Environment Commissioner Wallstrom said.
"I think we should be ambitious but realistic," she added.
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