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Boeing: Commercial Aviation Market Projected at 4.7 Trillion Dollars
The Boeing Company, releasing on Wednesday its 2001 Current Market Outlook, forecast a worldwide market of 4.7 trillion U.S. dollars for new commercial airplanes and aviation services over the next 20 years.
Boeing estimated the world fleet will double to almost 33,000 jets by 2020, comprising nearly 18,400 new airplanes for market growth, 5,100 airplanes for replacement, and more than 9,500 airplanes that are currently flying.
According to the analysis of the commercial aviation market widely regarded as the most comprehensive, the mix of current and new airplanes is expected to accommodate a forecast of 4.7 percent growth in world air travel, plus 6.4 percent growth in the cargo segment. Regional growth varies between 3.1 and 7.7 percent, with Latin America expected to be the fastest growing market.
Boeing also projected airlines worldwide will invest 1.7 trillion dollars in new commercial airplanes, which equates to 23, 500 airplanes deliveries over the next 20 years. Of the total investment, 56 percent will be for larger regional jets and single- aisle airplanes, 21 percent for intermediate-size airplanes, 18 percent for smaller regional jets (below 90 seats), and 5 percent for 747 and larger size airplanes.
The company estimated that the commercial aviation support services market will be worth more than 3 trillion dollars over the next 20 years, with annual revenues considerably more than that for the new airplane market.
Airlines operating expenses cover all activities to attract customers and deliver passengers and cargo to their destinations. These activities include a set of support services needed to operate airline fleets and eliminate surplus airplanes.
In 2002 alone, Boeing said, airlines spent more than 350 billion dollars on operating expenses, with roughly 95 billion dollars spent on support services. In the next two decades, according to Boeing, airlines are expected to spend the most in the heavy maintenance, airport route and infrastructure, airplane servicing and airframe component repair segments.
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