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|Tuesday, June 19, 2001, updated at 18:32(GMT+8)|
Wall St's Analyst Sees Long-term Growth in TelecomJack Grubman, one of the most prominent research analysts on Wall Street, has pointed out that telecom and technology sectors have great growth potential.
"What is the market saying versus reality? (Some may think) the market is suggesting that there is no value in telecom companies and that we will spiral down to zero value. But if telecom and technology are not of value, then no company in the world will grow their business," Grubman said at the three-day Telecommunications, Media and Technology Conference which opened here Monday.
The analyst, who has been ranked number one in U.S. Telecom equity research by Institutional Investor in 1999 and 2000, said 85 percent of revenues in the telecom sector are in the hands of the top 25 operators though there are 1,064 licensed telecom operators worldwide.
"Over the next four to five years, you will have four to six global mega-carriers. Possible examples: Deutsche Telekom, NTT, SBC-Verizon, Worldcom, France Telecom and AT&T," he said.
"And there will always be room for dozens of well-heeled, more niche providers on a regional basis," he added.
Grubman said that telecom is and always will be a secular growth industry on the demand side.
"Supply tends to be more cyclical. Every six to seven years, you go through a supply cycle - a technology cycle. Every step along the way, it's disruptive. Typically, the new companies cause innovation," he said.
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