Sino-US Relations: Feeble but Tenacious

A sign of relaxation appeared in the extremely tense Sino-US relations caused by the recent plane collision incident, US arms sales to Taiwan and the United States' NMD program. First, the Chinese President Jiang Zemin, taking advantage of the occasion of attending the Fortune Global Forum in Hong Kong, had a one-hour "happy exchange" with former US President Clinton and, in his talks with Gerald Levin, boss of US On-line Era Group, a big head of US media, Jiang pointed out, "We pay high attention to the development of Sino-US relations, advocating treating Sino-US relations from the strategic height and a long-term angle and properly handling differences."

Coincidentally, this happened when on the other shore of the Pacific, US President George W. Bush slightly changed his consistent hostile tone used when commenting on China, he pointed out at the US Electronic Industry Association that China is a great burgeoning country, and he vigorously supports trade with China. His remark implies he also attaches importance to developing relations with China, at least it is so in economic and trade fields.

That's enough. It is asked that in this world what else can more closely link up countries than can economic and trade ties? The Sino-US relations contain both the possibility of confrontation and even conflict, and extensive room for compromise and cooperation.

20 Years of Zigzag Waves

This form of zigzag waves in Sino-US relations has become a kind of development mode at least in the previous 20 years.

At the end of 1978, the Carter Administration completed the process of the normalization of Sino-US relations spread from the Nixon era, the United States severed relations with the Taiwan authorities and established diplomatic relations with China, this was to the satisfaction of both sides. However, this was followed by the US Congress' adoption of the Taiwan Relations Act which has so far affected and will, in the foreseeable future, obstruct the healthy development of the Sino-US relations; around the time of his assumption of office in 1982, Ronald Reagan, a conservative of the Republican, threatened to restore diplomatic ties with Taiwan and strengthen arms sales to Taiwan. For a time, dark clouds hung over the Sino-US relationship in its infancy. For this, the two sides conducted 10-month arduous negotiations, and reached the third joint communique, i.e., the August 17 Communique, following the 1972 Sino-US Shnghai Communique, and the communique on the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979. It was within the framework of this communique that Sino-US relations no longer sustained any major damage due to the Taiwan issue. Until 1992 when the then elder Bush, in a bid to campaign for re-election, decided to sell 150 F-16 fighter planes to Taiwan.

Sino-US relationship was in a slump in 1989. Elder Bush in July and November twice sent Brent Scrowcroft, Advisor to the President for National Security Affairs, as his special envoy to visit China, during which time he met with Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping. When Chinese public opinion was lashing out at the United States for its interference in China's internal affairs, all the time China still cautiously avoided criticisms of President Bush himself. Former US President Nixon then visiting China keenly felt this, He warned the White House, saying that President Bush himself has become the US greatest credit asset in China.

In the early 90s, during his campaign for presidential election, Democrat Clinton not only attacked the then Bush Administration's "appeasement" toward Beijing, but also, after his assumption of office, clearly expressed that the granting of MFN status to China should be linked with the country's effort to improve human rights. For a while, the only and most important bond that linked the Sino-US relations after 1989-the Sino-US economic and trade ties-was in deadly danger. However, one year later, due to China's resolute boycott and under the pressure of the US industrial and commercial interest groups, Clinton was compelled to go back on his own words, declaring that the human rights issue should be disconnected with the MFN issue.

In 1996, when a crisis was triggered by Lee Teng-hui pursuit of an "independent Taiwan", Chinese mainland conducted military exercises on the Taiwan Straits. The US government sent out two aeroplane carrier fighters for surveillance, thus triggering off confrontation between both sides. However, it was this dangerous prospect stemmed from the military confrontation of China and the United States that compelled leaders of the two sides to sit down again to seek ways for improving Sino-US relations, thus realizing the first exchange of visits between the top leaders of China and the United States over the past 10-odd years in 1997 and 1998, and there even emerged the saying that both sides would be "devoted to establishing a constructive strategic partnership", thus leading Sino-US relations to the best situation formed since 1989.

Feebleness but Unbreakable Tenacity

Following the bombing of Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia in 1999, there emerged a strong anti-US wave in China, signifying the death of the "constructive strategic partnership". In terms of the atmosphere of domestic public opinion, the Sino-US relations were plunged into an unprecedented slump, which for a time affected the final-stage negotiations conducted between China and the United States on China's accession to the WTO, the 14-year unremitting efforts made by China and the United States faced the threat of coming to naught. However, leaders of China and the United States made the choice after judging the hour and sizing up the situation, they not only swiftly resumed the once suspended negotiations, but finally reached an agreement, thus turning danger into safety in regard to Sino-US relations, avoiding lasting damage to Sino-US relations caused by the incident of bombing of Chinese Embassy. In the following year, Clinton unhesitatingly used all his political resources and spared no efforts to persuade the Congress to pass the bill of granting China PNTR status, recognizing the earlier reached Sino-US agreement.

Among the many factors affecting the sound development of Sino-US relations, there were both the hardly changeable structural factors, including the Taiwan issue and political party struggle during US general election, and the hardly controllable contingencies such as the "bombing of embassy" and the "plane collision" incident. Precisely because the Sino-US relations are affected by so many unfavorable factors, Harry Harding, the famous US expert on Chinese affairs, appropriately summed up this relationship as "a kind of feeble relationship".

On the other hand, however, In a series of global questions, (such as ｐｒｅｖｅｎｔｉｎｇ　the proliferation of large-scale WMD, and attacking international criminal activities)，rｅｇｉｏｎａｌ　ａｆｆａｉｒｓ　（ｓｕｃｈ　ａｓthe Korean Peninsula, peace and strategic balance in South Asia., the stability and prosperity of Southeast Asia） as well as bilateral relations between China and the United States, there exist complicated interdependent relations and overlapping of extensive interests, given this situation, sensible statesmen are fully able to pursue the benefit while avoiding detriment, striving to ensure that Sino-US relations, though feeble, are unbreakable, so as to form a relationship "with tenacity" as summed up by Lampton, another famous US expert on Chinese affairs.

Feebleness and tenacity constitute the basic characteristics of Sino-US relations. Under this precondition, it is very unrealistic to attempt to establish a kind of mature and stable relationship between the two big countries of China and the United States which have opposite ideologies, conflicting political systems, divergent social structures and different cultural traditions, the important thing is how to, under the conditin of acknowledging and respecting the difference and divergence of both sides, seek common grounds while setting aside differences, pursuing benefit and avoiding detriment, it is necessary both to form the lowest consensus featuring mutual understanding of the structural issue and expressive and implicit rules for handling this type of problems, and to establish a mechanism for handling contingencies, so as to avoid the occurrence of such incidents as plane collision and prevent excessive damage to the relations between the two countries caused by this type of incidents, thereby making the feeble Sino-US relations more tenacious. This will possibly be the issue which leaders of China and the United States will face squarely and pay attention to in the 21st century.

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