Fundamental Changes in US-China Ties Debated

A month of near-constant turmoil in US-Chinese ties has raised fresh questions about whether President George W. Bush has helped to set in motion a fundamental realignment of the countries' relationship.

Some respected American China-watchers are even broaching the idea of fashioning a fourth "communique" -- a formal agreement that would build on, or maybe even replace, three earlier accords that form the basis of modern US-Chinese ties.

"The fundamental elements that underlie the three communiques have basically broken down," said Richard Solomon, president of the United States Institute of Peace.

With the collapse of the Soviet Union and Taiwan's current status, "the strategic underpinnings of the three communiques no longer exist, and for that reason you need to rethink the basis of the (US-Chinese) relationship to understand its equities and the areas of conflict," he said.

Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, an influential Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, also sees potential for a formal restructuring of Sino-American ties.

The senator said that China would decide who will succeed current President Jiang Zemin in 2002, but once that is settled, "there may be an opportunity for the first step to take place in a updated, more formal relationship that we could move forward on," Hagel said in an interview.

Future-oriented Policy Urged

Thinking is still evolving on what a new relationship might look like, but Hagel said "it must be relevant to the times, it must be a relationship that draws from the strength and the foundation of what's gone before, it should be one that focuses very much on the future," including China's role in the world.

The idea of a fourth US-Chinese communique -- adding to those agreed to in 1972, 1979 and 1982 -- has occasionally been suggested in recent years and rejected.

The Bush team has not indicated it is re-examining the idea, but some analysts say it is.

US policy is to recognize "one China" and to have formal diplomatic relations with Beijing. But Washington also has "unofficial" ties with Taiwan that Washington has pledged to provide the island with arms to defend itself.

Bush campaigned on a platform that put new emphasis on allies Japan and South Korea. But recent weeks have been dominated by China-related decision-making and events.

Republicans are split

Bush, the leader of a Republican Party that is deeply divided over China, has fomented much debate on the subject since taking office. Some say he has single-handedly altered long-standing US policy -- without a fourth communique.

"It's still early to make a judgment, but on the basis of evidence to date ... the administration is reconstructing the relationship with China without renegotiating it," said Kenneth Lieberthal, a former aide to ex-President Bill Clinton.

"It has been taking a very wide series of measures that almost certainly are seen by people concerned with security affairs in China as threatening to their vital interests and fundamentally restructuring the relationship in a way that sets aside major previous agreements and understandings and does this on a unilateral basis," he said.

"At the same time, it also appears that significant changes are taking place in our policy toward Taiwan," added Lieberthal, a professor at the University of Michigan.

Bush's first major foreign policy crisis was thrust on him when a US spy plane with a crew of 24 collided with a Chinese fighter on April 1 and made an emergency landing on Hainan Island.

Holding of plane, crew

The crew was eventually returned. But because it was detained for 11 days and the plane remains in Chinese custody, the Bush team has taken a harder line toward Beijing. For example, US-Chinese contacts are now being reviewed on a case-by-case basis.

The calendar forced Bush to grapple early with some China issues that have increased tensions, including whether to support a UN resolution criticizing China's human rights record and whether to sell weapons again to Taiwan.

But Bush made his own contribution to the changing dynamics. He approved the largest arms sale package ever for Taiwan, said he would do "whatever it takes" to defend the island and will apparently allow Taiwan's president to meet congressmen when he crosses the United States on a trip to Central America this month.

Bush's decision to move forward with a missile defense system has also worsened relations, although partisans argue that the president's firm stance will make it more likely in the long run that Beijing takes him seriously.

When Congress debates the annual renewal of normal trade ties with China in June, the focus will be on economics, where many see more common ground, and then on a scheduled October summit between Bush and Jiang.

By then, "I think you'll see a certain natural balance re-establish itself in the relationship," State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said.

Source: China Daily

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