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Analysis: Why Britain Is Hesitating on US Missile Defense
British Prime Minister Tony Blair was recently accused by a senior US official as "wishy-washy and ambivalent" over the American plan for a nuclear missile defense system.
A British newspaper quoted Richard Perle, a consultant to US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, as saying that Blair was "dodging the issue" by refusing unambiguously to back the project.
His comments came a week after the British government at first signaled its support for the American plan, and then withdrew in the face of a rebellion from the ruling Labor Party and also from most of the British people.
Blair has been under very huge pressure on that issue and dare not yet make any clear decision on the US plan as Britain is scheduled to hold its general election next month.
Considering the special relations established between the United States and Britain in the past century, there is no wonder at all that Britain had again and again followed the United States very closely in recent years, both in the bombing of Iraq in 1998, when Britain is the only country joining the assault, and during the Kosovo conflict when Britain behaved as the second decisive power in NATO's attack on Yugoslavia.
But this time, U.S. President George W. Bush's call for an ambitious missile defense plan was greeted in most of the world capitals, including London, with a mixture of skepticism.
British people were also divided on their opinion over the U.S. plan.
When the United States offered the idea of a National Missile Defense (NMD) program late last century, questions were raised forcefully, and with serious political ramifications in Britain, as it was disclosed that the U.S. radar stations in northern England would have to be upgraded for early detection of missile launches.
Some military experts said that would make Britain an easy target of any U.S. foe who would find it impossible to attack the United States territory, which would be too far away for them to reach, while Britain is nearer.
Most British people are worried that joining or even supporting the U.S. plan would make Britain too vulnerable.
Local reports also pointed out that quite a number of the cabinet ministers in Blair's government are skeptical on the U.S. plan, which still has too many technical problems to resolve. Most of the government officials are privately expressing their doubt that the plan is practicable.
And there are repeated protests at Downing Street, the British prime minister's office, and near the two U.S. bases. People are calling Blair to say "no" to the U.S. "crazy plan" and requesting the U.S. bases to be closed.
Meanwhile, Blair has also been strongly challenged in the House of Commons by opposition Conservative Party leader William Hague, who believes in Bush's remarks that the U.S. missile shield could "provide protection for America's allies."
But Blair insisted that no British decision is needed until there are firm U.S. proposals. He accused Hague of lacking judgment and responsibility.
Defense policy is always sensitive and sometimes a decisive factor for elections in British history. It is understandable now that Blair would prefer to keep away from the hot missile defense problem and would like to delay any formal announcement of support until after the election.
The forthcoming general election in Britain, scheduled to be held early next month, would be a risk for Blair, who is widely expected to win the election, if he makes any clear message about the missile defense issue.
British media said no clever politician would dare to turn the stone of defense before general election, not to mention this time the missile defense program offered by an aggressive new U.S. president who has already done too much to provoke the world and British people by denying the Kyoto environment treaty.
Also, as the U.S. offer was greeted with skepticism in most of the European governments, which urged caution, deferred comment or took a wait-and-see approach, Blair, who is always trying to play the role of a leading power in Europe, does not want to offend his European partners by supporting the U.S. plan, even if he is personally in favor of joining the plan.
Some military experts here suggested that Blair would have to support the U.S. plan if the Americans firmly asked him to do so.
Paul Beaver, a military analyst in the Jane's defense company, said Britain would have no other alternative but to support the American missile defense program as the two counties are enjoying such close ties and Britain is too important in the U.S. plan.
He said Britain had begun to play an important role in the old Star War plan initiated by former U.S. President Ronald Reagan, when about 5 percent of the researches for the system were done by British scientists.
British sea-based and land-based radar technology are also quite helpful for the U.S. new plan and Americans would need that to deploy the new missile defense system, nick-named as "Son of Star War," he said.
It was quite clear that Blair would not make any clear decision on the U.S. plan before the forthcoming election.
But Bush had announced last week that he would send a special envoy to Europe this week to brief his missile policy to his allies.
So, when the U.S. envoy arrives in London, expected to be late this week, Blair would have to face the real challenge and articulate his decision, or try to avoid that again.
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