Analysis: Australian Politicians Trapped in Dilemma

Australian politicians have been trapped in a dilemma and they have to choose between the deep-rooted populism and globalism or try to balance the two.

In a Federal Parliament member byelection held on Saturday in Ryan, in Brisbane's western suburbs, the opposition Labor Party gained a lead, as the earlier polls forecast. It is not important who will be the winner when vote counting finished in about fortnight and the fact of a significant swing against the ruling Liberal-National Coalition is itself a real blow to the government.

Ryan is the Coalition's heartland and the seat there was a " blue-ribbon". Since the constituency was created in 1949, it had never been represented by a Labor parliament member. Just two months ago, the Labor Party's strategists were reportedly debating whether it would nominate a candidate.

More seriously, it occurred after the Coalition's defeats in the state elections in Western Australia and Queensland in February and in Victoria in 1999.

It is widely believed that Prime Minister John Howard made a mistake in its economic management. He refused to grasp a chance to develop high technical industries and produce high value-added productions to change its traditional export structure.

Howard cut the education and research funds to secure budget surplus. As a result, the country's trade deficit in the IT sector reached 20 billion Australian dollars (now about 10 billion U.S. dollars) yearly.

Now, thanks to synthetical factors, the surplus is in risk. The Australian daily said Monday in its editorial that "voters are entitled to wonder why the government spent so much time basking in the good times and building up the budget surplus, only to jeopardize it when the economy needed it."

But the immediate reason for his straits is the Goods and Services Tax introduced last July. He failed to anticipated its slow-burning impacts.

Farmers, small businessmen and self-funded retired men feel they are suffering from it. Well-known political commentator Paul Kelly said Saturday in his comment that "Howard government has relied too much on the treasury macro model and failed to invest more in human capital."

Looking on a bigger background, it would be found that all the troubles Howard faced today is a dilemma puzzling all politicians in the country. The most enthusiastic prime minister John Keating was kicked out of office in the 1996 election while John Howard became the winner by promising a "relaxed and comfortable life".

In the country, the iron rule "fair go" has been shaken by the economic reforms during the past two decades. They included financial and labor-market deregulation, floating the Australian dollar, the privatization of state-owned enterprises and the withdrawal of protection and subsidy from factory and farm.

Following on the heels are personal and regional inequality and the simmering resentment, as Paul kelly indicated that "the subliminal signals from Australia to the marketplace has long had an anti- globalization tinge."

However, facing the globalization, Australia has no choice but continuing reforms. Now, the Opposition leader Kim Beazley is reluctant to show his economic policy and is waiting for his rival 's fall. But analysts here pointed out that he will meet with the same problems now troubling John Howard, if he go into the prime minister office after the general election at the end of the year.






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