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Analysis: Museveni Likely to Win Uganda's 2001 Presidential Elections
Uganda's presidential elections scheduled for March 12 this year has become tighter between the two front-runners, the incumbent President Yoweri Museveni and candidate Kizza Besigye, who have won more than 90 percent of combined support in the east Africa country.
The country's media generally give the impression that the presidential race is between only two candidates, Museveni and Besigye, leaving alone the other candidates Aggrey Awori, Kibirige Mayanja, Chapaa Karuhanga and Francis Bwengye, said NEMGROUP-U, a non-governmental organization Election Monitoring Group in Uganda.
"Our candidate Museveni will win in a clean election," said Bidandi Ssali, President Yoweri Museveni's national task force deputy chairman. Meanwhile, Besigye claimed to "pull out Museveni" while addressing the largest rally in the capital Kampala on Friday.
The New Vision daily, the country's leading newspaper, indicates in its latest poll that Museveni leads the survey with 53 percent of respondents voting for him, while Besigye, a major challenger to the incumbent, is expected to win 39 percent of support country-wide.
Museveni will gain a sufficient majority to give him a straight win, media and observers here said.
Since Museveni came to power in 1986, Uganda has experienced rapid economic recovery with average annual growth rate of 6.5 percent and also enjoyed overall political stability.
Now, the key issues the Ugandan people are concerned about include education, economy, corruption and security. Museveni is capable to properly manage three of the four issues, that is, economy including poverty eradication and unemployment, education and security, indicated media reports.
The incumbent president, who has ruled the country for 15 years, is very popular in the rural areas. The New Vision newspaper said in its poll that Museveni appears to have most of the votes in the rural areas where he scored 53.4 percent, compared with Besigye's 38.9 percent. In urban areas, however, Museveni had 50.5 percent while Besigye had 42.0 percent.
The rural people have benefited from various policies and projects implemented by the Museveni's government, which include decentralization, liberalized selling of coffee, more abundant supply of consumer goods, supply of safe drinking water, on tax of agricultural products, the Universal Primary Education program, immunization and more health centers.
Museveni has won support of Ugandan women. The New Vision's poll shows that he is most popular among women, with 61 percent of the female respondents saying they would vote for him.
Sam Katunguka, a woman activist, said that even if her right hand were cut off, she will give Museveni her vote using the left one, and if her both hands were cut, she will use her foot to give him her vote. "The key that Museveni wins the support of most women is that he has empowered the women in the country, and this is one of his outstanding achievement," she said.
However, according to the poll conducted by the Monitor daily, a major independent newspaper in the country, the race has grown tighter as Museveni scored 47 percent of the votes, only ahead of Besigye by four percentage points.
The 1995 Constitution stipulates that a candidate shall obtain over 50 percent of the votes in order to win the presidency. Observers and analysts say that if a re-run is possible, the other candidates are likely to lend their support to the leading opposition candidate Besigye.
"Generally, it is impossible. Uganda needs a new face, but not now, for the sake of stability in Uganda," an analyst here said.
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