News Analysis: Why Controversial Tycoon Wins Election in Thailand

Thaksin Shinawatra, a telecommunications tycoon who is facing corruption charges, has won a landslide victory in Thailand's first general election held under the 1997 anti-corruption Constitution and may make his party the first one in the country's political history that claims an absolute majority.

A combined poll taken by the Nation Multimedia group and the Independent Television network showed Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai ( Thai Love Thai) party had captured 256 seats in the 500-seat House of Representatives in Saturday's general election while the ruling Democrat party led by Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai would win 126.

Last month, the National Counter Corruption Commission ruled that Thaksin, a 51-year-old billionaire, concealed some of his wealth by transferring stock shares to domestic servants when he served in a previous government in 1997.

If the Constitutional Court upholds the ruling, Thaksin will be barred from public office for five years.

However, Thai Rak Thai's landslide victory shows voters are evidently not deterred by the ruling and are eager to find a new leader that can speed up the country's sluggish economic recovery.

Thailand's major English newspaper The Nation said Thaksin's victory marked a new era for Thai politics.

"This is the first time big business and conglomerates will run the country," it said in an editorial Sunday.

"Other countries might have movie stars or former prisoners as their presidents, but Thais have decided to pick a billionaire. They probably entertain the hope that they too will be rich like their leader."

This might be true. "I voted for Thai Rak Thai because Thaksin is a successful businessman and Thailand needs a prime minister who has expertise in economy," said a civil servant in her 30s.

As one of the richest man in Thailand, Thaksin oversees a business empire with interests from mobile phone service to satellite communication.

"In today's world, a country's prime minister or president should also be the country's top salesman. I believe Thaksin will sell more than other politicians, and Thais will benefit from it," said Sirivat Voravetvuthikun, a property-dealer- turned-sandwich seller.

For many people like Sirivat who went bankrupt or suffered financial losses in the economic crisis erupted in 1997, the country's slow but steady economic recovery is far from satisfactory.

Following a 4.5 percent growth rate in 1999, the Thai government revised economic growth projection for 2000 down to 4 percent from 4.5 percent.

Despite on track for recovery, the country is still facing persistently weak currency, high oil prices and a mountain of non- performing loans that threaten to overwhelm banks and suffocate business expansion plans.

Under such circumstances it is only natural that voters are attracted to Thai Rak Thai's economic policies that are aimed at quick solutions to the problems.

Thaksin has promised farmers a three-year debt moratorium and one million baht (US$23,000) loans to each of Thailand's 70,000 villages to spur employment.

For urbanites he said he would form a national assets management corporation that would take debt from the banks, strengthen government's intervention to restore the markets and extend support for farmers and small- and medium-sized enterprises.

Despite analysts' warning that these economic policies were impractical and would do more harm than good to the country's already fragile economy, Thais believe Thaksin is the man who can give a quick fix to the economic crisis.

"I voted for Thai Rak Thai because I like its economic polices that can help Thailand to get out of crisis. Besides, Thaksin promised us he will inject new blood into Thai politics," said an 18-year-old student.

"It's obvious people want a change. They don't know what is ahead of them, but they have decided to take that risk," said Sukhum Nuansakul, an independent political scientist.

The sentiment demonstrated by the election results also gave the ruling Democrat party a strong signal that it's time for it to go.

"Every time the Democrats are in the government their popularity drops in the subsequent election. And this time we have the economic factor, and I have to admit that solving the current crisis is very tough. And we had to work amid the people's high hopes," said Abhisit Vejjajiva, deputy Democrat leader when reflecting on his party's loss.

According to latest television reports, more than 30 percent old parliamentary members lost in the election while young and educated new comers replaced these old hands.

Democrat party secretary-general Anan Anantakul said a key factor in his party's apparent defeat was its public relations campaign. He said his party would discuss its ways to improve its weakness.






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