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News Analysis: Thai PM-Apparent Faces Tough Challenges Ahead
Thaksin Shinawatra, who apparently will become Thailand's next prime minister due to his Thai Rak Thai Party's overwhelming victory in yesterday's general election, will face tough legal and policy challenges ahead as he is determined to take the job, analysts said Sunday.
For the fast-rising billionaire politician, analysts said now the problem is not if he can take the premiership, but how to deal with his personal legal problem and the mammoth task to save the country's stagnant economy.
In the short term, Thaksin's future as prime minister hinges on the country's Constitution Court, which will give a final verdict over his asset case within three months.
Last month, the National Counter Corruption Commission ruled that Thaksin intentionally concealed his assets when he served as a deputy premier in a previous cabinet in 1997.
If the Constitution Court upholds the ruling, Thaksin will be thrown out of office and barred from politics for five years.
The court said after seeing an obvious election victory for Thaksin that it will adhere to principles of law in handling the case, and will not bow to any pressure even if Thaksin will be given the top job in the next government.
The same criteria as used in considering the case against Sanan Kachornprasart, former secretary-general of the ruling Democrat Party, will apply on Thaksin. Sanan was finally convicted by the court on an asset case and banned from entering politics for five years.
"If the court convicts Thaksin, a Thai Rak Thai-led cabinet's stability will be in danger," Sanan commented on Sunday.
For sure, Thaksin's conviction will lead to a chaos in his government even the whole country, analysts said.
If surviving the case, he will still find it difficult to fulfill his campaigning promises to raise the living standard of poor people and pull the country out of current economic stagnancy.
While the central bank of Thailand predicted the economy will expand by 4 percent this year, most analysts gave their pessimistic views. Experts of the ING Barings Bank have even warned the kingdom would face a recession if the global economy slows down and domestic consumption remains sluggish.
Economic woes have long been the headache of the current premier Chuan Leekpai, who is furiously blamed by Thaksin for the slow pace of economic recovery since he took office amid the depths of economic crisis in 1997.
However, the headache will soon be Thaksin's if he replaces Chuan in one or two months' time as expected. And he must do better than Chuan if he wants to keep the trust of the people, analysts said.
Chulakorn Singhakowin, chairman of the Thai Bankers' Association said at a press conference today that he had heard some negative comments from foreign investors, who showed little confidence in the new government to steer the country's economy toward sustainable recovery.
Thaksin's policy on the debt suspension for farmers nationwide and the establishment of a national asset management company have drawn harsh criticism from economists who said such a move would put the country at risk as the public debts would rise dramatically.
Respected economist Ammar Siamwala warned that although the Thai Rak Thai Party's policies will contribute to short-term benefits for people from all walks of life, they could create staggering financial burden that must be borne by future generations of taxpayers.
He described as a serious risk the party's debt moratorium plan which would exempt farmers from interest payment of 18 billion baht (418 million U.S. dollars) per year out of the principal of 300 million baht (seven million dollars).
Political scientist Prayad Hongthong said that many voters who opted for Thaksin's party were jumping on the bandwagon, without much real faith in him.
"There will be a 'honeymoon period' of few months between Thaksin and his supporters after he takes office, but he needs to move quickly to fix various economic problems or he will soon face certain crisis, " he said.
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