US Leading Economic Index Continues Falling in NovemberA key gauge of the US economic activity fell 0.2 percent in November, showing an " increasing risk of a downturn" in economic activity ahead, the Conference Board said Wednesday.The Conference Board, one of the leading US business research groups, said in a survey that the Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators stands at 105.3, down 0.2 percent in November following a revised 0.3 percent drop in October and a 0.1 percent rise in September. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the leading index was down in eight of the past 10 months, the survey said, adding that this is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in previous years. The index is pointing to "significantly slower growth in the first half of 2001," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein. "The economy continues to cool off and there are now some job vacancies with no one to fill them." "More recently, both business and consumers have become somewhat more cautious. Still, the index is only 0.4 percent lower than it was one year ago. That is not a mark of any major contraction in business conditions. So the outlook remains one of slower growth, not slowed growth," Goldstein said. The survey said five of the 10 indicators that make up the leading index declined in November. The negative contributors to the leading index in the month were average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, average weekly manufacturing hours, vendor performance, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods, and stock prices. The positive contributors to the index were manufacturers'new orders for nondefense capital goods and materials, building permits, and index of consumer expectations, the survey added. The survey said, interest rate spread and money supply were flat in November. |
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