News Analysis: New US President Faces Challenges

After 37 days of fierce legal wrangling and political bickering, Texas Governor George Walker Bush became the new master of the White House at the turn of the century.

The president-elect, however, has had little time to relish his hard-won victory, as Herculean challenges lie ahead for the new US administration.

Major tests for Bush include: how to stick to a centrist route; how to get rid of the "chad syndrome" to achieve national reconciliation; how to fend off possible recession following years of prosperity; and how to manage world affairs wisely and properly to meet the demands of multi-polarization and globalization.

NEW POLITICAL SCENARIO WON'T ALLOW PARTISANSHIP

One prominent feature of this year's general election is the closeness of strengths between Republicans and Democrats. Bush garnered 271 electoral votes, just one above the needed majority to win the presidency. The new Senate is divided evenly, with each party holding 50 seats, while in the 435-member House of Representatives, the Republicans lead by only five seats.

The same pattern also applies to the election of state legislatures. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), Republicans now control both chambers in 17 states, Democrats in 16, and in others, control is split. Such a party division is the closest in 50 years, the NCSL said.

The great partition across the country, also seen as an all but equal distribution of power between Republicans and Democrats, may keep Bush from moving too far toward either the right or the left.

The razor-sharp contest behooves the new administration to adopt a middle-way approach to issues both at home and abroad.

"The voters were sending a strong signal to govern from the center," wrote a columnist in an article published in The Washington Post. "Many of the newly elected or re-elected members of Congress I've interviewed say that the message they heard from their constituents was a plea to put aside partisanship and pursue the kind of centrist solutions that make sense for the country," the columnist added.

Bush's triumph is to some extent attributed to the centrist policies he pursued in the campaign, which advocate a balance of roles between the market and the government, the profits and justice, the rich and the poor.

The centrist route, nonetheless, is easier to discuss than to follow, especially under the current circumstances. The neck-and neck matches between the two major parties indicate that neither conservatives nor liberals are powerful enough to rock the boat in the days to come.

At present, there are still Republicans who want to return to Reagan conservatism. Meanwhile, a liberal movement also seems to have gained momentum nationwide.

Pressures from both the ultra-right and ultra-left wings will inevitably threaten Bush's attempt to lead the nation effectively from the middle.

ELECTORAL WOUNDS TAKE TIME TO HEAL

This year's presidential election also witnessed Bush and Al Gore, the Democratic candidate and incumbent vice president, duel for 36 days over the vote count in Florida, whose 25 electoral votes held the key to winning the White House. The two campaigns fought one lawsuit after another, coupled with volleys of partisan rhetoric.

The prolonged partisan wrestling, rarely seen in more than 100 years, eventually came to an end due to the interference of the Supreme Court of the United States. The biting cuts however are so deep and bloody that it may take months, if not years, before the political wounds heal.

Gore, while bowing out of the contest, reaffirmed that he "strongly" disagreed with the Supreme Court decision which effectively halted ballot recount in Florida. His bitter complaint is being echoed among many Democrats, who have suffered severely from the debacle and will always cast a doubt on the legitimacy of the new president.

It is reported that many Democrats have decided to stage demonstrations against the election results in months to come.

Some voters have vowed to continue probes into the riddled ballot counting, while others threaten to file new lawsuits. All this may whittle Bush's ability to "put politics behind," and may even bring about partisan rancor among the divided public.

The general election also laid bare the profound ethnic rifts across the country. Statistics show that Bush won merely 10 percent of the African-American votes nationwide, the lowest level for a Republican presidential candidate since 1984.

In Texas, where Bush serves as governor, he secured only 5 percent of the African-American ballots, and in Florida, where Bush's younger brother serves as governor, the figure was 7 percent.

The disputes over the vote count, which occurred mainly in areas heavily populated by African-Americans, antagonized the black voters even further. Therefore, one of the daunting challenges Bush faces is to mend fences with African-Americans so that social reconciliation could be achieved.

ECONOMIC TREND REVERSING?

Just as Bush is warming up for the White House, the American economy is apparently cooling down to such an extent that the specter of recession is rising.

In the five weeks since Election Day on November 7, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Nasdaq Composite Index had dropped 17 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average had sagged as well. Retail sales are down, auto sales are slumping, factory orders are falling and prominent companies have announced plans for big layoffs.

A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows that the proportion of Americans who expect a recession in the next year has shot up from 26 percent to 43 percent in October.

If the ever-growing economy falls into recession substantially,average American families may turn their bitterness to the Bush administration. In addition, with a business slowdown, national revenues may shrink accordingly, putting a pinch upon Bush's 1.3-trillion-dollar tax cut plan over the next decade.

This may explain why the president-elect met with Alan Greenspan, head of the Federal Reserve, immediately after he moved to Washington for government transition on Monday. The meeting itself points to the importance Bush attaches to economic issues, on which he bet his political future.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS UNCHARTERED WATERS

On issues of foreign affairs, the Bush administration is also encountering new impediments. In the Middle East, sustained violence has dealt a heavy blow to US efforts for a negotiated peace between the Israelis and Palestinians.

On the Korean Peninsula, the new administration needs to decide on how to maintain the momentum of detente between the North and South, and how to re-arrange the U.S. troops stationed in South Korea and Japan after relations are normalized on the peninsula.

To deal with such major powers as Russia, China and the European Union properly constitutes another challenge to Bush, since a mishandling of ties may tip the global strategic balance and affect peace and stability in the world.

The National Missile Defense and Theater Missile Defense shields, which were shelved by the Clinton administration for further technical studies but are high on the Bush administration's security agenda, have aroused great concern and vigilance among many countries in the world, including some US European allies.

If the new administration insists on the across-the-board deployment of the missile shield, it will seriously undermine international efforts for arms control, nuclear reduction and non-proliferation, causing damage not only to the stability of the world, but also to the national interests of the United States.






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