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Barak Resigns, Chances for Comeback Slim
Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak announced at a dramatic press conference Saturday night that he will resign as prime minister and an special election for prime minister will be held within 60 days.
In a televised speech to Israeli people, Barak said: "With the emergency situation which the country faces, the embarrassment in the Knesset (Parliament), the need to go out and reduce the violence (with the Palestinians), and for the advancement of peace opportunities and peace negotiations, I decided to seek a renewed confidence from Israeli people, and a renewed mandate of leading the state of Israel on the way to peace, security, prosperity and social agenda."
However, analysts pointed out the real motive behind Barak's stunning statement was his desire to keep former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his most serious challenger in a prime ministerial election, out of the race.
It is too obvious that the 18-month-old Barak government failed in handling with both internal affairs and the ten-week-old clashes with the Palestinians and the question is not whether it would fall from power or not, but when and how the downfall will take place.
Before Barak's announcement on Saturday, It was widely believed that an early election, for both the parliament and prime minister, will be held next spring once Barak's Labor party and the major opposition Likud reaches an agreement on the election date.
But Barak's maneuver dramatically shortened the transition period and most importantly, made Netanyahu not eligible for the prime ministerial race as the former Likud leader is not a sitting Knesset member, a precondition for any candidate in such an election under Israel's laws.
Netanyahu, who enjoys a comfort 14 to 17-percentage point of support against Barak recently in various polls, resigned from the parliament and announced a political time-out since his humiliating defeat by Barak in the 1999 general elections.
He was seriously considering a political comeback in the past weeks and was widely expected to do so once the election day was set.
Now, the unprepared Likud may choose current leader Ariel Sharon, who runs neck-and-neck with Barak in opinion polls, as its candidate for the prime ministerial election. Barak may think that defeating Sharon will be a more easy work than winning over Netanyahu.
Another reason for Barak's resignation was that he wanted to silence the rebelling politicians in his own party.
After Barak conceded to the opposition parties' demands to hold early elections, some senior Labor lawmakers, most of them political doves, had coordinated behind the scenes for proposing another candidate in the Labor's primaries.
Knesset Speaker Avraham Burg, Justice Minister Yossi Beilin, Interior Minister Haim Ramon, and Regional Cooperation Minister Shimon Peres, are the leading rebels.
However, now Barak called all those doves to unite under his leadership as the 60-day election campaign period is too short for choosing a new leader.
But analysts said that Barak's too-smart maneuver may backfire and in turn reduce his chances to be reelected.
The Likud will accuse the left-wing prime minister of toying with the loopholes of Israel's election laws, stressing that such a guileful politician should not be trusted.
In fact, Silvan Shalom, a leading Likud lawmaker, already claimed shortly after Barak's announcement that the Likud will easily win the election.
Israel's constituents may also be fed up with Barak's handling of internal affairs and the ongoing clashes with the Palestinians, during which over 300 had been killed and ten thousands more wounded.
The leftists condemn the Barak government's blind faith to " excessive use of force" for quelling the violence, while the rightists claim that Barak did not bring Israel security as he promised in the last elections.
So they may straightforwardly denied Barak another mandate and choose anyone who runs against him.
Under such election pressure, it is also not impossible for the rebels in the Labor party to launch a new candidate in the primaries anyway once they realize that the only way for the Labor to win is dumping the prime minister and his zigzag policy regarding the Mideast peace process.
It is also unpractical for reaching a peace agreement with the Palestinians, which is regarded as Barak's trump card in any elections, in such a short time.
Without a peace agreement in hands by the election day, Barak's chances to be reelected will only be slim.
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