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Passenger Air Fleet Expected to Rocket
China's passenger air fleet is expected to more than triple its size in the next 20 years to accommodate the growing demand for travel.
Aviation industry authorities said on Sunday that the country's airlines, which own 499 passenger aircraft between them, are expected to need another 1,588 planes to address the projected 8.5 per cent annual growth in traffic between 2000 and 2019. Tang Xiaoping, from the Aviation Industry of China I (AVIC I) company, is the top aide to the president of AVIC I.
He said the rise is faster than the predicted 7.2 per cent gross domestic product.
"The country's air traffic growth is in a good position to rebound in the wake of a slowdown in the past few years and after the civil aviation sector carries out reform in the next two to three years,'' Tang said, quoting the annual aviation market outlook from the China Institute of Aeronautic Systems Engineering, affiliated to AVIC I.
Reform could include, for example, changing the mix of aeroplanes to include more smaller ones.
Last year, there were 60.93 million aeroplane passengers, up 5.9 per cent on a year-on-year basis, according to the latest industry statistics.
This means only 0.44 per cent of journeys made in 1999 were made by air, according to Tang.
Judging from the country's economic growth, population and land area, plus the sector's ongoing deregulation, it is believed air travel in China will soon rocket, according to some industry experts.
Domestic airlines will enhance their operation flexibility and competitiveness through optimizing their fleet mix, Tang said.
"By 2019, China will have 1,739 passenger planes, with 445 of them being small ones and the rest large and medium-sized jet airliners,'' Tang said.
In China, any aeroplane with less than 100 seats is considered small.
Aeroplanes with 150 seats will be the most popular for domestic carriers by the end of 2019, he said.
Most of China's aeroplanes were imported in the 1990s. In the next two decades, 348 will be taken out of service. Their replacements will account for 21.9 per cent of the additional aircraft, Tang said.
Last year the Civil Aviation Administration of China took 63 planes out of service and added 50 more, according to Tang, in an effort to better supply demand.
Taking the 20-year view, China will still import planes for its main air routes, analysts said.
As for the regional routes, which many industry insiders deem a growing market, Chinese airplane manufactures, including AVIC I, are determined to pack a punch, they said.
The Yun-7 series, a famous civilian plane developed by AVIC I, has flown on more than 200 domestic air routes, according to sources with the AVIC I.
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