Impeachment Trial for Philippine Leader Appears Inevitable

A prolonged impeachment trial for Philippine President Joseph Estrada seems inevitable as he and his opponents show no sign of backing down in their bitter confrontation over an illegal gambling scandal.

While the outcome of the impeachment proceedings remains in doubt, both government and business leaders agree that the extended political turmoil will further hobble the economy, scaring off investors and causing the already-battered peso currency to slip further.

That an impeachment trial should take place seems to be the only thing that Estrada and his opponents agree on.

The anti-Estrada crowd have hardened their position, holding a massive rally on Saturday to call for Estrada's ouster as they ridiculed him for a past marked by womanizing, drinking and gambling.

Estrada has dug in his heels, defiantly declaring that "no amount of rallies can make me resign."

Finance Secretary Jose Pardo warned that "if this escalates and continues to affect our country without a solution in the next few months, it will have a telling effect.

"Inflation pressures will be on us. Then interest rates (will go up), supply will contract and demand will contract," he warned.

The politically-fuelled economic downturn has prompted even apolitical business groups to call for Estrada to step down, with one statement stressing that "we forsee continued economic hardship for our people as long as this crisis of leadership continues."

The president's popularity has plummeted since a former friend, provincial governor Luis Singson, alleged last month that he personally handed over millions of dollars in payoffs from illegal gambling bosses to Estrada.

Vice President Gloria Arroyo, Senate president Franklin Drilon, former presidents Fidel Ramos and Corazon Aquino and influential Church leader Cardinal Jaime Sin have all called on Estrada to resign.

Meanwhile opposition legislators have filed an impeachment motion against Estrada in Congress over the scandal.

For a time, it appeared that the House of Representatives, dominated by Estrada allies, would delay the impeachment motion. But in the past week, at least 45 Congressmen have deserted the ruling party.

This paves the way for the impeachment motion to go to the Senate.

The impeachment motion will be taken up at the House justice committee on Monday and elevated to the House plenary session on November 13.

Estrada appears to welcome the move, saying in a public address last week that he had asked his ruling coalition to "complete the impeachment process as soon as possible."

He said he was confident that he would be vindicated.

House majority leader Eduardo Gullas estimates that the trial will last a month. But other Congressional experts say it could easily drag into next year as each of the 24 Senators will be allowed to follow their own line of questioning.

While standing firm on his refusal to resign, Estrada has attempted to accomodate the opposition + first inviting Arroyo, Aquino and Sin to a special meeting on November 6 and then asking Arroyo to head a special economic policy-making council.

But Arroyo, who heads an opposition coalition against Estrada, said she would only meet the president to discuss his resignation.



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