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National Economy: Seizing Opportunities, Sustaining Growth
Since this year, signs of national economy development have indicated that China's economy has shaken off the shadow of Asian financial crisis with important turn of national economy development appearing after a three-year effort. GDP increased by 8.2% in the first half year, and according to experts, the economic growth of the whole year is expected to be higher than that of last year.
Comparing with last year, consumption, export and investment witnessed excellent performance respectively. Regarding to consumption, the implementation of the policies of activating consumption such as increasing income, lowering interest rate by banks, interest rate tax levy, real name deposit system, prolonging holidays, etc. totally changed the weary condition of social consumption. The total retail rates of social consumer goods reached 1624.8 billion RMB in the first half year, up 10.1% comparing with that of last year, and the increment up 3.7% comparing with that of the same period last year.
Foreign trade export rallied to a great extent in the first half year. The total export volume amounted US$114.5 billion, up 38.3%; and total import reached US$102.1 billion, up 36.2%, witnessing a trade surplus of US$12.4 billion, increasing US$4.4 billion comparing with the same period last year, and the driving effect reinforced for production. Fixed assets investment of the whole society totaled 1017.6 billion RMB, up 11%, and turning the falling trend of increment in the second half of last year. State and other type economy investment amid totaled 753.8 billion RMB, up 12.1%, and collective and personal investment increased by 7.9%.
The sustaining climbing up of the stock market, the hot holiday economy could prove the economic recovery. The consumer confidence index of our country witnessed unprecedented climbing-up month by month since 2000. And the economic efficiency of enterprises keep improving with countrywide enterprises boom index in the 2nd quarter rose to new high, increasing by 6.5% and 11.8% respectively comparing with the 1st quarter and the same period last year. Entrepreneurs show unprecedented optimism to the present economic trend. Statistics from National Statistics Bureau indicated that about 80% entrepreneurs think highly of the macro-economic trend of the 3rd quarter.
Authorities evaluate as: the quality of economic growth improves, all kinds of relations keep coordinate, production and consumption develop toward the same direction, macro and micro economy grow in-phase.
While the weakening of national economy, experts warn that the basis of economic rebound is still not firm enough and the controversy of insufficient demand during economic operation has not been radically resolved.
One difficulty economic growth facing is how to start up rural market. At present, farmers¡¯ income keeps slow increase with the increment of per capita cash income only 1.5% in the first half of this year, not only lower than that of urban residents¡¯ income, but also lower than that of the same period last year. At the same time, social insurance system has not been mature enough, with the problem of laid-off and unemployment protruding, residents shouldering great payout pressure, and new consumption focus not forming. Upon investment demand, the present investment growth depends more on the support of special national debts, with sustainable investment growth system not forming, social investment inactive and local investment incapable of follow up timely.
Regarding to the improvement of enterprises efficiency, in depends more on some external factors. In the first five months, the newly added profit of oil mining industry amounted 49.1% of the total newly added industrial profit due to the influence of oil price rising, etc. 16.2% newly added profit lied on the interest payout cutting of enterprises due to continuous lowering interest rate, canceling bad debts after verification and implementing the policy of debt-to-stock, etc. The profit of oil, telecommunication and electric power industry amounted 54.5% of the total industrial profit, and that of big and medium sized enterprises exceeding 70%. As a result, the efficiency of enterprises may suffer a reverse with minor change of external factors. As far as the market price change is concerned, it was mainly caused by the substantial surge of international oil price and domestic price adjustment, but not by the enlargement of market demand.
The favorable change of national economy benefited radically from the sustaining implementation of active fiscal policies and stable monetary policies by the Party Central Committee and the State Council. Therefore, the State Council has determined to continually carry out active fiscal policies in the second half of the year. The 17th session of the 9th National People's Congress Standing Committee has approved the State Council additionally issuing 50 billion yuan national debts for long-term construction, in order to solve the problem of insufficient follow-up capital of fixed assets investment. At the same time, the step of economic system reform and structure adjustment should speed up. Agriculture and rural economic structure should be further adjusted and optimized to consolidate the fundamental status of agriculture. Reform of state-owned enterprises should be further deepened and industry structure adjustment should be further expanded. In order to further widen the consumption field and effectively drive the economic growth, our country will take a series of measures to eliminate consumption obstruction, including canceling unreasonable fees for car purchase, speeding up the opening of house trading market, adjusting telecom fees structure, and enlarging education consumption, etc.
China's economy out of the influence of Asian financial crisis, has shown a new development prospect. Zhu Zhixin, director of National Statistics Bureau indicated that it was too early to say the national economy met great turn although it kept subtle but stable growth. We should keep an optimistic and cautious attitude, seizing opportunities, and realizing the sustaining growth of national economy.
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