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Experts Estimate 600,000-1 Million AIDS Victims in China
China will have between 600,000 - 1 million AIDS victims this year and AIDS will cost China 460 - 770 billion yuan annually, according to the China News Monthly.
The report pointed out that fifteen years ago, AIDS was virtually unheard of in China, and people would talk about AIDS with a smile on their face. Today, people talk about AIDS like they talk about what they're eating for dinner tonight.
An official report said that in 1999, the number of AIDS victims in China reached 15,000 cases. Experts predict that, on the conservative side, there are at least 500,000 people infected with the AIDS virus, and that number is increasing at an annual rate of 30%. The experts say that AIDS in China has already entered a period of high growth.
Zeng Yi, an AIDS researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told China News Monthly, "If no measures are taken quickly, China will have the most AIDS victims in the world and the spread of AIDS will become a national disaster."
According to Dr. Zeng's estimates, by the time there are 600,000-1 million AIDS victims, it will cost between 460 - 770 billion yuan in economic losses annually. Once the AIDS virus becomes widespread, it will destroy the hard-earned results of China's economic reforms.
The Ministry of Sanitation revealed that between 1985, when the first AIDS victim in China was discovered, to late September 1999 there have been 15,088 reported AIDS victims in the People's Republic of China, 477 of which were AIDS patients and 240 of which were dead.
But AIDS researchers point out that this figure does not describe the danger the spread of the AIDS virus poses. They say, "This [figure] has little significance on the size of the epidemic, it will only mislead policymakers and cause them to miss the excellent opportunity to fight AIDS."
The article pointed out that before 1994, most of China's AIDS victims were drug users in the Yunnan province. After 1994, AIDS spread out of Yunnan to the rest of the country. A June 1998 report by Qinghai province discovered that in four short years, AIDS had spread to 31 provinces, cities and self-autonomous regions in China. Experts say that the number of AIDS victim has increased steadily. In 1993, there were 10,000 AIDS victims in China; in 1994, 30,000; in 1995, 100,000; in 1998, 300,000; and by 1999, conservative estimates say 500,000.
One expert who asked to remain anonymous told a China News Monthly, "At first, there was one red dot on our map, then a slice of red, and now there are already no white spots on our map of China. Each region has witnessed a large number of deaths due to the AIDS virus. The level at which it has spread has already surpassed Africa."
Currently, China's defenses against the AIDS virus are not enough. But more threatening is apathy and denial, which bureaucrats and government organizations are guilty of.
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