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Export Rates Decline, Imports Increase
Trade experts predict that recent rapid increases in exports will slow down during the second half of this year, but imports are expected to expand quickly.
The experts said there is "room for improvement" in policies affecting imports and exports.
During the first five months, China's trade volume surged 36.1 per cent from comparable months of last year to US$174.1 billion with a surplus of US$10.5 billion.
Exports rocketed 36.8 per cent to US$92.3 billion and imports rose 35.4 per cent to US$81.8 billion.
"An improving world economy boosted China's exports," said Long Guoqiang with the Development Research Centre of the State Council.
Major trade partners' economic performances should be partly credited for the large increase in China's trade volume, he told Business Weekly.
Southeast Asia has recovered from the 1997 financial crisis, the United States continues to report strong economic growth and Europe is also performing well. Japan, however, has fallen short of expectations.
Long said the government's supportive policies helped the country's exporters.
Exports have been increasing since last July, when the government raised the tax rebate rate.
That also explains why general trade retained a much higher growth rate than the processing trade, said Long.
General trade increased by 50.5 per cent when compared to last year's January-May trading period, compared to 27.2 per cent for the processing trade.
Booming exports strengthened the national economy, which saw expansive domestic demand and increasing profits for State enterprises during the first five months of this year, he said.
But Long also pointed out that the high rate of increase was based on a comparatively low base last year.
The month-to-month rate of increase is as high as comparative results on an annual basis, he said.
He predicted that the annual average increase rate for this year will be lower than that of the first half. "The increase rate is expected to slow in July," he said.
He said a declining trend can already be detected - the May increase, 27.1 per cent compared to last May, was lower than rates for the first four months of this year.
Imports, however, may continue to grow because of the strengthening economy and expanding investment, Long said.
China's imports of raw materials and fuel continued to grow rapidly. Oil imports grew by 121.8 per cent in January-April when compared to last year.
Surging international oil prices, however, pushed up by China's oil imports to 360.9 per cent.
Long suggested the government should improve its management of foreign trade and economic co-operation to boost exports.
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