Sulu Hostages' Fate Uncertain Despite Start of Formal Negotiation

Hopes for the safe release of the 21 hostages in a month-long captivity remain dim although Manila and the Abu Sayyaf kicked off their formal negotiation over the crisis Saturday in the southern Philippines.

Analysts say the uncertainty in the negotiation mainly lies in the proposed Abu Sayyaf political agenda, which is reportedly dominated by their demand for the creation of an independent Muslim state.

Manila has repeatedly refused to consider the rebel group's separatist politics, which the government said will destroy the nation's territorial integrity.

The 21 hostages, abducted by the Abu Sayyaf from Malaysia's Sipadan resort on April 23 and then moved to the southern Philippine island of Sulu, include nine Malaysians, three Germans, two French, two South Africans, two Finns, two Filipinos and one Lebanese.

Government chief negotiator Robert Aventajado was reported to be optimistic of the outcome of the negotiation, although he did not disclose whether the Abu Sayyaf has cancelled its secessionist demand.

"I think the conditions are right," said Aventajado before leaving Thursday for the talks in Jolo. "Everyone is doing his part to fulfill the order of President (Joseph) Estrada for the hostages' safe release."

Earlier, Aventajado said the top priority in the negotiation would be the release of an ailing German woman hostage. Foreign Secretary Domingo Siazon, however, was more cautious about the final settlement of the hostage crisis, saying the previous kidnappings by the Abu Sayyaf had lasted three to six months.

The 21 hostages still "have a long wait ahead of them," Siazon told three envoys of Germany, France and Finland who led an European delegation to Manila Thursday.

Earlier reports also said that in preliminary talks with Sulu Governor Abdusakur Tan, the Abu Sayyaf was still seeking an independent Islamic state in Mindanao, where most of the nation's four million Muslims live.

Having some 1,000 members, the Abu Sayyaf is a smaller but more radical one of the two Muslim rebel groups in the south. It is based in Sulu and Basilan provinces in Mindanao area.

The Abu Sayyaf, which has held itself as the "alternative" for Mindanao Muslims since its emergence in 1991, is often regarded as a fundamentalist group because they choose to employ terrorism to pursue their political ends.

In the past nine years, they were held responsible for some 70 terrorist incidents. This year alone, they have reportedly conducted no less than five abductions.

Apart from the Sulu hostage crisis, the Abu Sayyaf kidnapped in Basilan on March 20 more than 50 local Filipinos, mostly teachers and school children.

Although most of the hostages have been freed following the government troops' pursuit, the Abu Sayyaf guerrillas have killed six and still keep seven in their hand.

The two major abductions pointedly coincided with the escalating clashes between the government troops and another Muslim rebel group-- the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), which shares common pursuit with the Abu Sayyaf.

The fighting in Mindanao in the past few months have left some 200,000 civilians displaced, more than 100 soldiers killed and nearly 500 wounded.

The upgraded violence and dragged-on hostage crisis are believed to have helped float the Muslim rebels' political demand, an ethnic issue that dates back to the 1970s. In the early 1970s, the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) led by Nur Misuari emerged to fight for independence from the overwhelmingly Catholic Philippines.

The former biggest rebel group then held that Manila, through its policy to encourage migration by Catholics in the north to the south, had been plundering the resource-rich Mindanao for centuries, leaving the area mired in poverty.

The armed clashes between the MNLF and government troops caused 120,000 deaths before the two sides signed in 1996 a peace accord, under which the MNLF have changed from independence pursuit into self-rule.

As the breakaway fractions of the MNLF, however, the 15,000-strong MILF and the Abu Sayyaf boycotted the peace accord and rejected autonomy. They even considered the accord a "sellout."

Citing the poverty haunting the Mindanao Muslim Autonomous Region (ARMM), the secessionists said Manila was only interested in avoiding violence rather than to boost economy in the ARMM. Among the total 20 poorest provinces in the country, 15 are reportedly in Mindanao and are led by Sulu, Maguindanao, North Lanao and Tawi-Tawi, all belonging to the ARMM. Moreover, Mindanao Muslims held they are even "poorer," claiming that they have become more of a minority in their communities and less in control of their land and resources.

The Muslim rebels' political demand under such an economic background is believed to be one of the major obstacles hampering the hostage negotiations.

The Philippine government, on its part, has definitely rejected the Muslim rebels' separatism, trying to adopt different tactics in face of different crises.

In Central Mindanao, the military is launching an all-out offensive aimed to undermine the MILF's capabilities to undertake terrorist activities.

In Sulu, however, the government urged the Abu Sayyaf to drop its political agenda and other unreasonable demands to pave way for an early negotiation of the hostages' release.

As the hostage crisis drags on, several bombs have recently rocked the capital of Manila, which is said to convey the signal that the crisis will not be confined to Mindanao if the government opts for a military solution.

During his trip to the Visayas on Friday, President Estrada asked all the rebel and secessionist groups to stop their violence and help him fight poverty for the benefit of the Filipino people. Meanwhile, the president made it clear that while he wants to work for peace, this peace must be achieved in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution.

"We must remember that we have only one God, one government, and one country. We must unite and help each other to accelerate our attainment of progress," he said.

Earlier, in response to the unacceptable conditions put by the Abu Sayyaf, Estrada stressed the government will not compromise with terrorists who trample on the rights and liberties of the people.

"We shall not cower in fear nor shall we allow other forces, other than the dictates of our nation's interests, to influence our decisions," he said.

Also, the government has reportedly rejected Abu Sayyaf's ransom requirements, since any promise of such payment will be inevitably regarded as an encouragement to terrorism. For the government, the challenge is to contain the Muslim rebels' separatism while seeking the safe release of the 21 hostages.

Analysts say that the hostages' freedom remains vague before the Abu Sayyaf give up their political agenda while the lasting solution must be a longer pursuit of peace and prosperity by the nation as a hole.

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