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Specter of US NMD Hovers Over Europe
The National Missile Defense (NMD) system of the United States, like a specter, has recently hovered over the sky of Europe. The NATO Foreign Ministers Conference opened in Florence on May 24 decided to list it as a main topic for discussion at the conference. Observers say the NMD may bring far-reaching influence on the European-American relationship.
US Wants to Set Up a "Magic Shield"
In light of the situation revealed thus far, the US NMD will be built in three stages. In the first stage, it will deploy 100 intercept missiles in Alaska, being able to intercept more than 10 warheads. For this, the United States will improve its existing radar system, and at the same time build one more radar network, which is expected to be completed in 2007.
In the second stage, the United States will continue to improve and upgrade its intercept and early warning abilities, so as to guard against the missile attack as a retaliatory measure.
In the third stage, its early warning radar network will cover the whole country, the United States will deploy 200 intercept missiles, some of which will be deployed in the outer space. The missile defense system as a whole is flexible, which can be expanded at any time when deemed necessary. It is presently difficult to calculate how much is spent on the establishment of the missile defense system. US$15 billion has been allocated for defense purpose as revealed in the 2001-2005 budgetary report of the US Defense Department.
The United States claims that deploying the NMD is aimed mainly at coping with three possible threats: First, accident occurs with the Sino-Russian missile launching system wherein missiles are inadvertently fired toward the United States;
second, taking retaliatory measures, China and Russia would launch missiles toward the United States;
Third, Iraq, Iran and other so-called hooligan countries, or international criminal groups would take the United States as the target of missile attack. Americans, both in power and not in power, admit that the possibility for the occurrence of the first two threats currently does not exist, but the possibility for the occurrence of the third threat is on the increase.
However, people in the United States who oppose missile deployment point out that although theoretically the NMD can intercept ground-launched missile attack, it cannot bring real security for the United States. It cannot cope with sea-launched cruise missiles, still less can it deal with terrorist activties of every hue.
Europe Expresses Its Dissatisfaction
Most of the European countries adopt a sceptical attitude toward US planned deployment of the missile defense system.
First, they worry that this practice of the United States would worsen US-Russian relations and hamper the process of US-Russian nuclear disarmament. The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty reached between the United States and the former Soviet Union in 1972 stipulates that both sides should not develop and deploy missile defense system. The present practice of the United States has obviously violated this treaty. If the United States insists on deployment or unilaterally withdraws from this treaty, it is bound to force Russia to develop and deploy the "missile defense system". This, on the one hand, will cause Britain, France and other European countries to lose "nuclear deterrent capability", rendering their nuclear weapons into useless "toys"; on the other hand, it will cause renewed tension in the US-Russian and European-Russian relations. In addition, it will adversely affect the US-Russian third-stage negotiation on cutting down on strategic weapons. The Russian military has indicated that if the United States withdraws from or does not abide by the disarmament accord already reached between both sides, Russia will withdraw from all disarmament negotiations and disarmament agreements. Although such an expression of attitude contains the "factor of threat", its negative effect on US-Russian nuclear disarmament is evident.
Second, they worry that new rift would emerge in European-US relations. For a period of time, the United States has followed with concern about the enthusiasm shown by European countries in building Europe's "defense pillar", thinking that the European countries' practice is deviating from NATO's course and that they underestimate the danger of the "hooligan countries". Europe complains that the United States is "doing things its own way", because in taking policy decisions, the United States has failed to consult the allied countries, its deployment of the "missile defense system" is a case in point. In Europe's opinion, the United States has exaggerated the capability of the "hooligan countries", and it is completely superfluous to deploy the "missile defense system". France and some other European countries are worried that the "missile defense system" would siphon off part of European capital and would directly affect the construction of the "European defense pillar". In addition, NATO's defense idea is based on "equal risk" After US deployment of the National Missile Defense system, there will appear security zones of different classes in NATO. This will give rise to the question of whether Europe should also deploy a "missile defense system" and a series of related issues. At present, the questions, such as EU east expansion, EU structural reform, and European defense construction, have made it impossible for Europe to attend to all these things, and it has no intention to carry this new burden.
US Becomes More Unscrupulous
Third, they worry that the "Non-proliferation treaty of nuclear weapon" will generate negative effect. A total of 187 countries participate in the treaty, its basic contents are: apart from the five nuclear countries, other nations are not allowed to possess nuclear weapons. In 1995 when the treaty was postponed indefinitely, the five nuclear powers undertook the obligation of stopping nuclear tests, continuing nuclear disarmament and ultimately destroying all nuclear weapons. US Congress refused to ratify the treaty on stopping nuclear tests, thus letting down the non-nuclear countries; at the UN disarmament conference, with the exception of China, other four nuclear powers opposed setting up a committee for destroying all nuclear weapons, thus once again disappointing the non-nuclear countries; at the same time, India and Pakistan openly conducted tests of nuclear weapons, setting a bad precedent. Under such circumstances, if US deployment of the "missile defense system" leads to stagnation in US-Russian nuclear disarmament, this would possibly spur some countries to develop and test nuclear weapons and thus rendering the non-proliferation treaty into a mere scrap of paper.
After World War II, the stability and peace achieved over the past half century in Europe are based on the strategy of nuclear deterrence. After the United States deploys the "missile defense system", it no longer needs to worry about being hurt by others, but the case is just the opposite for EU, it will increase the danger of nuclear attack on EU. At the same time, having no fear of being attacked from behind, the United States will definitely become more offensive in the international arena. Is this a blessing or misfortune for Europe after all? Maybe the Europeans are most clear about this in their minds.
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