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'Taiwan Independence' Will Ruin Taiwan's Economy
This article by Chen Yushu, through its in-depth analysis, concludes that "Taiwan independence" will spell an end to Taiwan's economy or cause it to collapse. The commentary runs in part as follows:
The election result in the Taiwan region revealed that the Kuomintang had fallen down and Lee Teng-hui, repudiated by the general public, was forced to resign his post as president of the Kuomintang. Lee's bad end is the inevitable result of his act of going against the will of the State and the feeling of the people and is the historical punishment meted out to him for his obstinate pursuance of the line of "Taiwan independence".
Lee Teng-hui served as a teacher by negative example and a mirror, elements of "Taiwan independence" should take this as a lesson.
The election of leaders for the Taiwan region, whatever its result may be, can in no way change the fact that Taiwan is part of China. The one China principle is the foundation and prerequisite for the peaceful solution of the Taiwan issue. Whatever form of "Taiwan independence" is intolerable to the Chinese people, and its result will inevitably bring calamity to the country and the people and will meet its disastrous defeat.
I have had heart-to-heart talks with friends in the enterprise and economic circles of Taiwan, the majority of them oppose" Taiwan independence". This was naturally prompted by their sense of national righteousness, but one of their most important considerations was that "Taiwan independence" would ruin Taiwan's economy and cause the economy to collapse.
Economy is the foundation of society. The Taiwan economy has seen relatively rapid development over the past 30-odd years, but its inherent basic problems remain.
Firstly, it is an economy of a typical island type, its region is narrow and small and resources are deficient. The province has to rely on supplies of energy, materials and goods from outside the island. Secondly, its basic industry is weak, sophisticated science and technology are fragile, it does not have much room for development and its follow-up motive force is insufficient. Thirdly, its export-oriented economy and foreign trade are the main characteristics and lever of the Taiwan economy, its markets are almost all located outside the island, Taiwan must rely heavily on the international market for support. If its international space is plundered to the extent that there is no more room for movement, then it will either be stifled to death or seek a way out by shifting its capital and production outward.
"Taiwan independence", whatever its form, cannot solve these basic problems related to the Taiwan economy, on the contrary, it will rapidly aggravate the problem and cause the Taiwan economy to collapse.
Obviously, the creation of so-called Taiwan independence would mean the beginning of a war, and is bound to trigger an intense war across the Taiwan Straits, that would inflict disastrous losses on the Taiwan Island economy. In today's world, except for a limited number of places and a handful of people with ulterior motives, the overwhelming majority of countries and regions favor the one China principle and do not support "Taiwan independence" or "one China, one Taiwan". The space for "Taiwan independence" is dwindling. The creation of "Taiwan independence", if any, is bound to lose all international space and the support of the international market, and its result is self-evident.
Since the 1980s, foreign trade has gradually become the pillar of the Taiwan economy. The proportion of foreign trade to Taiwan's GNP has been growing ever bigger. An analysis of Taiwan's total import and export value, particularly its total export value, total value of foreign trade and its trade composition, and trading products reveals that once "Taiwan independence" offends the world outside Taiwan Island, the Taiwan economy can only be plunged into the "raging billows" and the "seabed".
Hong Kong has always served as an intermediate station, bridge and passage for the transit trade between Taiwan and the mainland of the motherland. From Hong Kong one can see the situation regarding the economic trade between Taiwan and the mainland. Since the launch of the reform and open policy, thanks to the series of preferential policies adopted by the mainland toward Taiwan businessmen and Taiwan commodities, the volume of transit trade between the two sides of the Straits via Hong Kong has witnessed a steady growth., thus creating considerable trade surplus for Taiwan. According to statistics released by the mainland, in 1999 alone, the total value of trade between the two sides exceeded US$20 billion, with Taiwan gaining a trade surplus of over US$15 billion. The mainland has become the largest source of trade surplus for Taiwan; it is thus clear to what degree Taiwan is dependent on the mainland for export market.
With small enterprises and insufficient scientific and technological personnel, Taiwan is in dire need of support from the mainland. Taiwan's small and medium-sized enterprises account for 98.5 percent of all its enterprises, which provide employment opportunities for over 80 percent of the residents. With extremely limited number of scientific and technological personnel and research and development capacity, Taiwan has launched large-scale development toward the mainland of the motherland in recent years.
It should be said that the cooperation between Taiwan and the mainland possesses unmatched favorable conditions. Being geographically close at hand, trade between Taiwan and the mainland makes it possible to considerably reduce transport fees and energy and save time. Resources and labor power which Taiwan lacks are all available in the mainland. Furthermore, since people of both sides are all Chinese, they have the common 5,000-year-old historical heritage and a common national cultural background, both use the Chinese language as the tool for exchange and writing, which is easy to understand and for communication, thus making it possible to greatly raise work efficiency and reduce cost. This will provide incomparable space and market for the sustained development of Taiwan's economy. Conversely, if "Taiwan independence" were created by anyone, it will ruin Taiwan's economy.
At present, Taiwan is faced with the problems of enormous reduction in the orders for exports, a rapid rise in the unemployment rate, a speedy increase in the outward shift of its capital and industries and a new record low in the island's folk consumption. During the election in the Taiwan region, Lee Teng-hui resorted to every possible trickery and did everything he could to back up the "Taiwan independence" forces, thus bringing serious consequences to Taiwan.
Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan all belong to Chinese territory. The land between the two sides of the Taiwan Straits is all land of China, and the people across the Straits are all Chinese. The Chinese should promote unity and oppose split; they should support reunification of the motherland and oppose "Taiwan independence"; they should complement each other's strong points and strive for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, they must not do anything that aggrieves those dear to us and gladdens our enemy and thus ruin ourselves.
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