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Japanese PM Obuchi in HospitalJapanese Prime Minister Keizo Obuchi may have suffered a stroke and it was unclear when he would be able to resume his duties, Japan's NHK television said on Monday, a day after he was admitted to hospital.Quoting medical sources, the daily Asahi Shimbun also said there was a strong possibility he had had a stroke. NHK said leaders of Obuchi's ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) were concerned that due to the stroke, Obuchi would take a long time to recover and the appointment of an acting prime minister was being considered. "Based on the tests done so far, there is a strong possibility that he has had a stroke," the Asahi Shimbun said. Obuchi's hospitalisation, if prolonged, would jolt the ruling LDP, complicating its prospects for a Lower House election that must be held by October. His illness is expected to have little immediate impact, however, on the spending programme to accelerate the long-stagnant economy. Chief Cabinet Secretary Mikio Aoki told a late night news conference on Sunday that Obuchi, 62, had been hospitalised at one a.m. (1600 GMT) that morning with an unknown illness sparked by overwork and that tests were being conducted. Aoki is currently acting as a "caretaker" premier in place of Obuchi, Akitaka Saiki, a spokesman for Obuchi, told Reuters, adding that ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leaders would make the decision on whether to appoint an acting prime minister. Saiki said he had no fresh news on Obuchi's condition but that Aoki would meet the media at 1100 a.m. FEW HARD FACTS In a news conference that provided few hard facts, Aoki first said he did not know if Obuchi was conscious, but later said the prime minister had been conscious when he visited him on Sunday afternoon. Obuchi suffers from a heart condition for which he has a pacemaker. When he became prime minister in July 1998 there were questions raised about the state of his health but there have been no reported problems since he took office. Aoki said the government would consider whether to appoint an acting prime minister, but did not elaborate on the timing. Earlier reports said Obuchi had been worn out from manning the crisis centre set up after the Mount Usu volcano erupted on the northern island of Hokkaido on Friday. After suffering harsh criticism for its slow response to previous disasters including volcanic eruptions, the huge Kobe 1995 earthquake and last year's nuclear accident, the government has won praise for its swift action on the Hokkaido volcano. Obuchi has also been under attack on the political front, where his three-way coalition -- battered for weeks by a series of high-profile scandals -- is now unravelling. After talks late on Saturday with his two coalition partners, Obuchi said the smallest of the three parties would break away. The departure of the hawkish Liberal Party, or at least a good chunk of it, could dent Obuchi's fading popularity before an election for the powerful Lower House of parliament that must be held by October 19. Obuchi has also been busy preparing for a Group of Eight (G8) leaders summit to be held on the southern island of Okinawa in July. He wants a summit success to help to boost the LDP's performance in the Lower House election. WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? Political experts said that under the Constitution, Aoki, as chief cabinet secretary, would take charge as an acting prime minister if Obuchi was incapacitated. But Muneyuki Shindo, a professor at Rikkyo University in Tokyo, said there was no legal procedure set for deciding whether the prime minister should be replaced if he was not able to make that decision himself. "If he is actually unconscious, LDP executives may have to simulate obtaining his decision to resign," Shindo said. "We can't go into the summit with an acting prime minister." While members of Obuchi's own faction would be keen to see the next prime minister come from their own group, the party would have to take into account the views of its remaining coalition partner, the Buddhist-backed New Komeito, and of those members of the Liberal Party planning to stay in the ruling camp. "Aoki won't be the next prime minister," Shindo said, adding that Foreign Minister Yohei Kono and LDP Secretary-General Yoshiro Mori were possible candidates. "In either case, it wouldn't be a very strong government," he added. Obuchi's popularity ratings have been sliding since the formation of an expanded three-way coalition last October after rising from rock-bottom levels when he first took office in July 1998. The improvement in the ratings had been largely due to signs of an economic recovery and to Obuchi's own amiable image. The economy is still showing signs of renewed vigour, but the ruling camp has been hit by a series of scandals, including a number of high-profile cases involving senior police officials.
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