This is supposed to be a period starting from 1991 when the US got back to its feet from a recession of economy to an expected future time around 2030 as the third period to experience a long-time economic growth known to the world.

A longer period of economic growth had twice been witnessed and known to the world in the past 300 years as history has told us. An annual 3.5% and 3.45% growth was first achieved in world trade and economic advances during the years 1870-1913. This was then followed by a growth to 9.4% and 5.3% during the years from 1950 to 1973. Where were the contributing factors or powerhouse? Not many differences but similarities can be drawn between these when speaking about past and present international environment for bringing about an overall growth of the world economy. The following words may fit to make the point clear:

One is a comparatively peaceful international environment being presented. World hegemonism and power politics pushed by a few Western powers in various forms and armed conflicts being endlessly carried out in bringing about great calamities upon the world instead of a reigning universal peace are not to be denied without doubt. But things in present-day world have made it impossible for another world war, much less to say a world war by a single world power or some world powers. As a matter of fact, not all countries have the time or ability to go in for such a war for intensive efforts they are now in vying for an improved international and peripheral environment and an overall growth of national strength of their own. No world powers, with the world biggest as the US included, can be excepted. There has arisen therefore a complexity of relationships as coordination, cooperation, competition and contradictions between those of world powers. As things stand in today's world, various forms of regional cooperation and competition have to be developed to ensure a sustainable development of economies by various countries and of the world economy as a whole.

Two, great scientific technological advances and breakthroughs have been made in development and a wide use of electronics, aerospace technology and development of space resources, bioengineering, new material technology and nuclear technology. These have all contributed to a 23-year growth of the world economy since the early 50s of the 20th century. According to scientists, scientific successes made by men in the first 50 years of the 20th century had far exceeded those recorded over the previous 2000 years. In contrast, things had gathered up speed in their course of advance in the 2nd half of the 20th century and will even develop at a greater rate in the 21st century, they said. Deng Xiaoping pointed out that the 21st century "will be a century featuring hi-tech advances". By 2020, according to a study of Japanese scientists into the subject, men's knowledge had registered a three- to four-fold increase in the 90s of the 20th century. Following an estimation by scientists, great advances and breakthroughs will be made by men in world information technology, biological technology, new material technology, new energy technology, aerospace technology and marine technology conducive to a great growth of the world economy in the 21st century.

Three, there is an economic restructuring being out on a world scale. This first began with the US, with a nationwide restructuring of economy launched in the 80s of the 20th century. As things stand now in the world, it has been accepted and further developed by many a varied economies and in a variety of reform pursuits as are being undertaken in many other countries throughout the world. Following the objectives set, a reform of agriculture (viewed as the first industry) is going to be carried out. Greater quality yields will have to be wrested from limited amounts of arable land to ensure growing supplies for an increased population to be met when fine environment and ecological balance are kept. In contrast, industries categorized as the second industrial pursuit have to be optimized. New and high technologies will be employed in reform of those outmoded traditional lines to be coordinated by a great development of other new industrial lines in keeping pace with new economic advances of the time. With these there will be also a further restructuring of the tertiary (services) industry and the possibility for the rising of a new industrial branch as the fourth for bringing about sustained economic growth and a change in social distribution and consumption.

To be in short, to bring about sustainable growth of the world economy, peace with a strengthening of cooperation between countries is completely necessary for the world today. A long-time economic growth is in the meantime in demand of a new fair international order to be created along with a close cooperation by world powers. World war will bring nothing but total destruction must be excluded. Short of these, it goes without doubt, there will be no world economic growth to speak of. (Li Changjiu)