The initial recovery in members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in 1999 marked a reversal of fortune for the group, which is set to perform much better in 2000 with robust growth and deeper cooperation.

This is the view expressed by many economists and analysts when asked about the prospects of ASEAN, which now groups Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam.

From a steep decline of 7 percent in 1998 to a modest increase of 3.4 percent in 1999, the 10-member ASEAN has indeed performed a near miracle during the past 12 months.

However, the rebound was still at the initial stage, compared with an annual growth rate of 8-9 percent in the region before a financial crisis hit ASEAN members in mid-1997.

To achieve a faster growth in 2000 is not an easy job for most ASEAN nations, where rising public debts are preventing governments from spending heavily to stimulate growth; huge un- performing loans are affecting bank lending; and lower competitiveness is slowing down exports growth.

But ASEAN countries are trying their best to prevent the recovery from derailing by seeking more foreign investments, developing high technology and deepening economic reforms.

Economists estimate that if the ASEAN countries could adhere to economic structural adjustments, they are likely to see a 5-6 percent growth in 2000.

Although a full recovery remains a tough job for ASEAN countries, closer cooperation within the ASEAN region in 2000 could help them attain the goal.

With a decision made at the informal ASEAN summit in Manila last November, about 90 percent of products traded within ASEAN will be subject to tariffs of 5 percent or less in the new year.

This is part of the ASEAN's ambitious plan for the ASEAN Free Trade Area. If the scheme is implemented well in the new year, the ASEAN's plan to advance the target date for zero tariffs in the region to 2010 from 2015 would become more realistic.

"The decision in Manila reaffirms ASEAN's commitment to a progressive integrated market, which is important not only for expanding trade within ASEAN but also for attracting investments into the region," said ASEAN Secretary General Rodolfo Severino.

Moreover, ASEAN will strengthen cooperation with other East Asian countries such as China, Japan and South Korea in the economic and social fields in the new year.

Such cooperation would accelerate trade, investments and technology transfer and encourage technical cooperation in information technology in the ASEAN region and the rest of East Asia, economists said.

While a higher growth rate is likely to be achieved by most ASEAN countries in 2000, the ASEAN's unity and role in dealing with regional and international affairs are expected to be strengthened.

Founded in 1967, the ASEAN has been an important force in maintaining regional peace and stability in the past 32 years. Nevertheless, the financial crisis, which has not only weakened the ASEAN's economic position, but also undermined social stability in the region, has distracted the ASEAN leaders' attention from some regional issues.

In the meantime, with the rapid expansion and the inclusion of countries with different political systems and at different stages of development, coordination within the group also has to be enhanced.

Now, recovery from the crisis has provided a good opportunity for the group to meet all these challenges and regain its strength and influence in the region, political analysts said.

The new year, therefore, may prove a new start for the 32-year-old group.