"A look into Developments of the World Economy in 1999" is a year-end report by People's Daily Reporters Chen Te'an and Wu Qimin, which reads in part as follows:

A new millennium is going to be hailed by people by the end of the 90s. With a look into developments of the world economy one will find a happy situation is presented in 1999: Things have changed much for the better for the whole of the world economy. Irrespective of successive financial disasters over the last two years the whole world economy has been leveled out of its deepest downturn to advance on the normal way of its development. A good number of world-renowned authoritative research institutions have therefore been found out vying with their forecasts on many a varied growth rates by the world economy this year. A view by a majority of economists known to the world is that the whole world economy has been set on the right course of coordinated development. Following a rise in world economic trade amount, according to them, there has been increasingly seen a growing effort for new investment pursuits by transnational investors irrespective of unexpected risks involved.

A scene of coordinated economic growth has been presented this year. According to IMF "Global Economic Prospects" published, a 3.0% growth is to be expected by the world economy by the end of this year and this is to represent a 0.5 percentage point increase over last year and a 3.5% growth by 2000, a record high since 1998. IMF "Prospects" further points out that since catastrophes wrought havoc in new emerging markets in 1997 and 1998 "marked alleviation" has been noted of the world economic situation and of world financial conditions along with a recovery of economy by most crisis-ridden countries. What is more, this situation will further develop well in the coming new year. By estimation, a 4% rise is going to be seen in world trade amount this year for a 3.5% growth over last and a 6% to 7% increase to mark the coming new year. According to UNCTAD, total world investment is going to reach US$ 700 billion this year from US$640 billion last year.

The US economy has been said to be developing in a state of "super high speed". With a 4% growth to be expected by the end of this year, it will achieve a greater growth over the world average. Suppose a sustained growth up to February the coming year, the US economy will experience a growth over a period of the longest known to the US since the mid 19th century. Statistics show an annual growth of as much high as 3.1% is to honor the US economy in the coming new year.

The European economy is to be noted still at a low growth rate as it has been by the end of this year. Inauguration of Euro will help EU enhance its ability to stave off financial risks in contributing to a growth of its economy. By forecasts of IMF, EU will by its GDP attain a 1.9% and 2.1% growth in its Euro domains. A big country known for its size beyond Euro domains, UK may aspire to a growth of 1.75% by the end of this year. By estimation, EU is going to wrest a 3% economic growth the coming year. Typical are figures listed in the following diagram:

World 10 Large Importers/Exporters and Regions

10 Large Exporters and Regions

Claiming World Export Amount (%)

EU* 20.1 US 16.8 Japan 9.6

Canada 5.3 China's hinterland 4.5 HKSAR 4.3

ROK 3.3 Mexico 2.9 Singapore 2.7

China's Taiwan 2.7

World Commodity Trade

2000: a growth of 6-7% predicted

1999: a growth of about 4%

1998: a growth of 5.3%

10 Large Importers and Regions

Claiming World Import Amount (%)

US 22.3 EU* 18.9 Japan 6.6

Canada 4.9 HKSAR 4.4 China's hinterland 3.3

Mexico 3.0 China's Taiwan 2.5 Singapore 2.4 ROK 2.2

*Inter-EU trade amounts are excluded.

Data source: WTO

Diagram by Wang Yongsun and Chen Ying

The US and EU member countries are having an economy being developed as a whole in a healthy way, being the kinetic power for a continuous growth of the world economy. With this force as their backing, a 2.8% economic growth is to be achieved by the developed countries by the end of this year and this is to represent a 0.6 percentage point increase over last year, against a 3.2% economic growth by these countries the previous year.

Japan has for many years suffered from a lackluster foam economy. It is only in this year that it begins to see some signs of recovery from its deepest downturn and has come for the first time in the 4th quarter of the year to achieve some economic growth since 1997. It is predicted that a 0.6% economic growth in the fiscal year of 1999 is to be realized by the Japanese government.

After breaking away from the heavy siege of financial crisis the Asian countries' economies have already been seen on the way to recover, a fact largely exceeding economists' audacious estimate. By estimation of Asian Development Bank, the Asian developing countries and regions will achieve an economic growth of as much high as 5.7% by the end of this year over 2.3% last year. Of these, a 9% growth is to be promised for ROK and a growth of 3% to 5% respectively by Singapore, Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia when a fast economic growth is being presented in China.

Things have not been in a very bad way as they should have been in Brazil for financial crisis had struck with less severity and no great havoc has been wrought in that country in economy. Still, a mere 0.1% growth will be with the downward lackluster Latin American economies by the end of the year when a sizeable growth is expected the coming year. For a cut of oil production to an average growth of 1.8% by the Middle East oil producers and a price drop in non-oil commodity markets a 3.1% growth can only be predicted by the African countries in economy.

When speaking about economies in the developing countries, a 3.5% growth rate is estimated by the end of this year over an average of 3.2% growth last year.

Though the Russian economy has for many years suffered from a near zero growth yet things in the country this year have been much far better than a negative growth of -7% earlier predicted. East Asian countries' financial crisis also has had its ill impacts on economic development of the East European countries: Merely an estimated 1% growth is to be attained.

A restructuring of economy has stimulated growth of economies in many countries. A fact to be noted from a look into world economic developments in 1999 is that with a restructuring of economies in various countries there has been brought about an overall growth of the world economy. Needless to say, this has benefited in the first place the US to show a successive vigorous growth over the years in economy. Japan has also made intensive efforts for an improved situation of its economic development. These include a reform of its finance and banking system and reforms by domestic enterprises in order to bring about a change to the downward situation of the Japanese economy. Economic recovery has also gathered force in many East Asian countries backed by a series of countervailing measures and a restructuring of their economy for overcoming economic setbacks met. A direct result of this is that a faster economic growth than expected, recommended as one of "no ordinary growth" by Western economists, has been duly achieved in East Asian countries.

An estimate by concerned resources shows that with less debt obligations to perform, improved finance and a growth of GDP the Asian investors have been offered greater opportunities to aspire to an increased income from their economic operation. These have likewise come to honor Asia as a profitable place to win more investors. Typical are things with ROK and Thailand that have come to be turned once again into hot places for a new investment heat. In the last 20 to 30 or so years, Asia, especially East Asia, has achieved a fast economic growth, thereby laying a solid economic foundation for a new high tide of economic construction in the whole region.

A fact not to be denied is that a merger of local enterprises has been the paramount objective of foreign capital injected in order to seek the highest amount of profit from Asia. Though with help provided by direct investment from without the Asian countries may technologically be upgraded, yet they will certainly be held down from a fast recovery of their economy. It should be pointed out that how a restructuring of the economy is to be carried out and what a new type of economic system and mechanism is to be formed or introduced is most important. They must see to it that their education, culture, science and new and high technologies be greatly and highly developed in order that an inexhaustible pool of economic strength and quality personnel for a sustained growth of their economy is to be provided. No outside economic assistance or beneficiaries' help is dependable for all wishes to that end will go to no avail.