An official of the State Forestry Administration predicted that China's timber imports are not expected to increase much during the year 2000,according to China Daily Business Weekly on November 7.

"The country's timber imports will stabilize at about 10 million cubic meters," said Dong Xinmin, deputy director of the administration's forest products co-ordination centers.

Domestic supply is expected to be 60 million cubic meters in 2000, with demand at 70 million cubic meters, he said.

He warned timber importers not to overestimate a projected timber shortage in China stemming from the central government's logging ban. The ban was imposed in the second half of last year to protect natural forest.

Under the ban, forests in the upper reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow rivers may no longer be logged. But the areas do not account for much of China's total timber output.

Forests in the northeastern forest area, which account for the biggest share of the total volume, and mature forests planted 50 or more years ago, can be logged.

Even though State-owned forest operations are restricted in their production, they are not always required to follow the ban to the letter, since large amounts of funding designated for compensation and to assist them in their move to other businesses have not been fully allocated yet, said Dong.

He said timber importers should learn a lesson from the deluge of timber imports which resulted in an oversupply and lower prices on the Chinese market during the first half of this year.

To avoid timber shortages, the central government has reduced tariffs on timber imports and has cut wood-product tariffs to zero.

It has allowed many more firms to import timber than prior to the logging ban.

China imported about 5.5 million cubic meters of timber during the first half of this year, compared with 6 million cubic meters in 1998.

The imports have set a record in terms of amounts, varieties and sources, Dong said. The imports are mainly from Southeast Asia, Russia, Europe, Africa and the South Pacific.

As stockpiles grow, timber buyers are getting picky and the prices of timber are sliding, he said.