BEIJING, April 11 -- Chinese agriculture's dependence on foreign trade will keep declining, with total import and export growth for agricultural products predicted to be lower than 5 percent in 2014, a think tank report said Friday.

Total imports and exports are predicted to hit around 200 billion U.S. dollars this year, with a growth rate of less than 5 percent year on year, compared with 6.2 percent in 2013, according to the report released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Strong production capacity and low domestic demand for agricultural products contributed to the slack growth, according to the report.

Despite slowing foreign trade growth, China's imports will continue to expand, the report said.

The report predicts that China's total grain output in 2014 will reach 610 million tons. The output of oil crops will increase to 36 million tons, while cotton and sugar output will continue to fall.

Risks of a shock to the domestic agriculture industry will rise as China expands imports of grain, edible oil and cotton, it said.

Last year, the value-added in the primary industry amounted to 5.7 trillion yuan (about 926 billion U.S. dollars) in 2013, growing by 4 percent from the previous year, the report said.

It also said that figure is predicted to drop below 4 percent in 2014, when primary industry's value-added will account for just 9.8 percent of the gross domestic product of the nation.

The primary industry will enter a "below-10 percent" era, it said.