"China's GDP growth will be between 7 and 9 percent in the decade from 2013," said Cheng Siwei, a noted Chinese economist, at the Fifth China Economic Outlook Forum on Jan 11 in Beijing.

Cheng said that China's economy has experienced three economic cycles. The first was from 1983 to 1991 at the beginning of reform and opening up - the country was groping for the road to economic development with Chinese characteristics. The second was from 1992 to 2001 - a period that saw the rapid development of China's economy, but where there was extensive volatility. The third was from 2002 to 2012 – a period of rapid economic growth. Despite the outbreak of the worldwide economic crisis during this cycle, the average growth rate of China's economy still reached 10 percent.

Now the Chinese economy is about to enter a fourth economic cycle - the decade following 2013. "During this period, the Chinese economy will place its emphasis on quality, high-speed and steady growth."

Cheng Siwei believes that during this decade, China's economy will witness minor fluctuations and that GDP growth will be between 7 and 9 percent. Growth rate in individual years may be slightly lower than others, but overall growth will be stable, steady and of good quality.

In addition, from the perspective of the law of economic cycles, the peak of this new economic cycle will occur in 2019. There are two reasons for this. First, the reform measures pledged during the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC congress will gradually play a determining effect. The new leadership will mature in its experience of managing state affairs, and the Chinese people will develop an in-depth understanding of the central development policy by then.

"In my analysis, by 2019, China's economic growth could reach 9 percent, or even a little higher, but with steady overall growth."

Cheng said that in the case of a rapidly-growing economy, the inflation rate must not be too high; the inflation rate is expected to be controlled at below 5 percent. Of course, one of the premises behind these forecasts is that there will be no new international crisis. Meanwhile, implementation of domestic reform measures should be gradual.

During the forum, Cheng also analyzed the major issues affecting the future of economic development, such as debt, environmental issues, and the rush to investment by local government. He said that in contrast to the subprime lending crisis in the U.S, China should keep careful watch over the ability of local governments to repay their debt.