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People's Daily Online>>Opinion

China's GDP growth may slow to 8 percent in 2012

By Yang Kai (People's Daily Overseas Edition)

16:08, December 27, 2011

Edited and Translated by People's Daily Online

Experts and scholars attending the 11th China Economic Forum, which kicked off in Beijing on Dec. 24, are cautiously optimistic about the Chinese economy in 2012.

"China's GDP growth may drop to about 8 percent next year," said Wei Jianguo, secretary-general of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

Renowned economist Li Yining echoed Wei's growth forecast, but stressed that a GDP growth rate of 8 percent is not easy to achieve.

Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the ninth and 10th Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, said that global economic conditions would remain grim next year.

"The global economic growth rate will decline next year, but it will not be lower than 3 percent," Cheng said.

Economic growth is likely to continue slowing in the United States and major European countries in 2012. The European sovereign debt crisis is still spreading, and the rise in protectionism and oil prices as well as other uncertainties will also hinder the economic development of emerging economies and developing countries.

Unbalanced fiscal and monetary policies have been regarded as the root cause of the deteriorating European debt crisis, so China's fiscal and monetary policy has attracted much attention.

Li believes what European countries should learn from the debt crisis is to keep fiscal balance. China should moderately increase its money supply in the future according to its own conditions. Cheng agrees that the country will slightly relax its prudent monetary policy next year.


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