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China Focus: China's economy has bottomed out


08:05, October 24, 2012

September data of China's economy indicated a pick-up in economic activity (Photo/China Daily)

BEIJING, Oct. 23 (Xinhua) -- Digesting recent economic numbers, financial institutions across the globe have reached a general consensus: China's economy has bottomed out.

Data released last week by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's economic growth slowed to an annual rate of 7.4 percent in the third quarter. However, September data indicated a pick-up in economic activity.

"While news headlines highlighted this as the lowest growth in 14 quarters, we think the economy bottomed out in the first half of the year," UBS economists, headed by Tao Wang, wrote in an research note.


Third-quarter gross domestic product growth and better-than-expected September data suggest economic growth is stabilizing, according to Barclays.

"Overall the September data release painted a consistent picture of a pickup in domestic activities on the back of recovering domestic and possibly external demand, as well as accommodative monetary and financing conditions," Barclays economists, lead by Huang Yiping, wrote in a research note.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML) said that "7.4 percent GDP growth in Q3 could mark the trough".

BAML economists wrote in a note, "Now we are seeing an increasing amount of evidence for green shoots. This evidence comes from a wide range of sectors including transportation, commodity, exports, property market, credit and money data, tourism during Golden Week and restocking by manufacturing companies."

In March, China for the first time set its growth target below 8 percent in a move to chart its economy towards a more balanced and inclusive one. But worsening conditions in the following months raised worries that the world's second-largest economy was at risk of a hard landing.

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