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Inflation rebounds to 2% in August

By CHEN JIA and GAO CHANGXIN (China Daily)

08:02, September 10, 2012

A man scrutinizes the production date of canned food at a supermarket in Ningbo of Zhejiang province on Sunday.HU XUEJUN / FOR CHINA DAILY

China saw a rebound in inflation for the first time in five months as well as the slowest growth pace for industrial output in three years in August, increasing the risk its economic slowdown may now extend into a seventh quarter.

The country's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key gauge of inflation, rose 2 percent from a year earlier, up from July's 1.8 percent, driven mainly by rising food prices, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Sunday.

Meanwhile, the growth in industrial output cooled to the slowest pace in 39 months to 8.9 percent, the third decline from May's 9.6 percent, June's 9.5 percent and July's 9.2 percent.

Analysts suggested the rebound in inflation may reduce the government's options in how best to stabilize and stimulate economic growth in the world's second-largest economy, which President Hu Jintao said on Saturday faces "notable downward pressure".

Europe's debt crisis has crimped exports and a crackdown on property selling is damping domestic demand, while rising housing and food costs threaten to trigger another round of consumer-price increases.

"It may not be a temporal rebound of the CPI, but it is a turning point for the year, which means that inflation in the fourth quarter will keep rising to about 2.8 percent," said Li Xunlei, the vice-president and chief economist with the Haitong Securities Co Ltd.

In August, vegetables surged 23.8 percent in price, compared with 8 percent in July, which alone lifted the CPI by 0.6 percentage points, while fruit prices surged 9.7 percent.

Food prices increased by 3.4 percent year on year, up from 2.4 percent in July, while non-food prices increased by 1.4 percent, down from 1.5 percent in July.

Qu Hongbin, the chief economist in China with HSBC Holdings Plc said the rebound in the CPI was influenced by a shortage of vegetable supplies, not because of any easing in monetary policy.

NBS said the indicator showed that consumer inflation in August jumped again after monthly consecutive declines since March.

During the first eight months, the consumer inflation growth rate was 2.9 percent.

It seems that to achieve the government's stated inflation rate target of "no higher than 4 percent" may be not difficult.

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