Latest News:  
Beijing   Sunny/Cloudy    32 / 23 ℃  City Forecast

English>>China Business

Outlook not that pessimistic

By Zhang Xiaojing (China Daily)

15:18, August 06, 2012

A new round of reform is needed to inject vitality into the Chinese economy and make its growth sustainable

China's declining economic growth rate has been discussed at different forums at length. Some scholars argue that China has exhausted all its advantages in demographic dividend, globalization and reform, and therefore the decline is unavoidable. There is nearly a consensus that China's economy will slow down, and the debate is mainly on the actual rate of growth.

We should respect the economics cycle and not harbor the illusion of registering further double-digit growth. Our research shows that the fast-growing economies, with the sole exception of Taiwan, registered a drop in their growth rates in the fourth decade of their economic development.

But at the same time, we should not be pessimistic about slower growth. China's economic growth is not destined to drop. A relatively strong growth for another decade or even longer can be realized if China can push forward its reform and innovation plan, build up human resources and participate in global governance.

Some economists have forecast that China's demographic dividend, which means a high percentage of working-age population, will end in 2015. The sixth population census shows that China's population growth is much slower than what the policymakers had expected, and the drop in the number of children and increase in the number of senior citizens have been beyond expectations too.

Australian economists Rodney Tyers and Jane Golley, however, say, China's demographic dividend can last until 2030 if the actual working population, instead of the working-age population, is calculated. The number of workers will increase by including workers from the traditionally non-working age group. For example, extending the retirement age can turn non-working-age people into workers.

Besides, thanks to the development in China's education sector the number of skilled, well-educated workers is increasing. This will offset the negative impact of the declining working-age population and prepare China for a knowledge-based economy.

It is true that China is losing its traditional advantage of exporting products at low costs. For three decades, China's economy relied heavily on exports to the United States and European countries by taking advantage of its cheap labor. But with the return of protectionism to the world stage after the global financial crisis, China may lose the benefits it has gained from globalization.

China, nonetheless, can gain new benefits by helping devise the rules of globalization, mainly in the areas of financial regulation, international monetary policy reform, developmental issues, security and energy.

【1】 【2】



News we recommend:
Luxury brands continue to cash in on China market Rare earth regulation justified Growth to bounce back in H2
Lamborghini sees 20-30% rise in supercar sales Ad campaigns are competing hard in London Major lenders broaden horizons and flex financial muscles
Chinese airlines buck global downturn  Software outsourcing on upward curve Realty policy clarification required

Email|Print|Comments(Editor:李倩、厉振羽)

Leave your comment0 comments

  1. Name

  

Selections for you


  1. Chinese navy ship visits Bulgaria

  2. Heavy downpours batter Pakistan's Lahore

  3. US launches two trade remedy actions against China

  4. Kunqu Opera in the Olympic limelight in London

  5. Human Body Exhibition kicks off in Belgium

  6. Weird body art

Most Popular

Opinions

  1. Editorial: Mission for eurozone leaders
  2. UN resolution adds pressure to Syria gov't
  3. What is wrong with products made in China?
  4. Indian blackout: result of neglect of livelihood
  5. Editorial: Economic food for thought
  6. Detachment no serves China's interest in ME
  7. US sanctions on China's bank ridiculous
  8. Editorial: Do business, not politics
  9. Arrival of Chinese fleet rattles EU
  10. India’s blackout offers lesson to China

What's happening in China

Train kills woman who ignored alarm at Wudaokou railroad crossing

  1. More charity chain stores for Beijing
  2. Major crackdown in fake medicine scam
  3. Compensation sought from train crash
  4. Haikui approaching China's eastern coast
  5. 79 dead in Beijing devastating rainstorm

China Features

  1. Why Hollywood favores China's actresses?
  2. Dongfeng Honda to recall 76,000 CR-Vs
  3. How to protect yourself during heavy rainstorms?
  4. Are synthetic drugs toxic?
  5. Amway vitamin C tablets short in weight

PD Online Data

  1. Spring Festival
  2. Chinese ethnic odyssey
  3. Yangge in Shaanxi
  4. Gaoqiao in Northern China
  5. The drum dance in Ansai