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No second dip in China’s economy: Experts

(People's Daily Online)

13:45, July 11, 2012

China’s economic growth rate is falling but will not see a second dip, Chinese experts said recently.

Zhang Xiaojing, director of the Office of Macroeconomic Research under the Institute of Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that the government work report in 2012 has adjusted the expected goal of GDP growth rate to 7.5 percent and the current slowing of the growth rate is a need for accelerating the transformation of economic development pattern and is in line with the expectation of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Zhang said that despite the falling of the growth rate, it will not see a second dip in Chinese economy judging from the macroeconomic operation.

Firstly, the Chinese economy still shows a fast and stable growth. The GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2012 reached 8.1 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the beginning of 2012. The GDP has a 1.8 percent of increase quarter on quarter in the first quarter. Such a high growth rate is rarely seen even in the world.

Secondly, the impetus of economic growth is steady. The Purchasing Manager Index of China is 50.5 percent, 51 percent, 53.1 percent, 53.3 percent, 50.4 percent and 50.2 percent respectively from January to June this year. Although the PMI had declined significantly in May, all of the PMIs in the first six months have exceeded 50 percent mark that divides economic prosperity from depression, which indicates that Chinese economy still maintains a stable growth.

Thirdly, the driving force of economic growth is powerful. The export, investment and consumption show a well growth trend.

The gross value of imports and exports reached about 344 billion U.S. dollars in May, with both imports and exports hitting a monthly new high since 2012.

The total import and export value from January to May reached 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase of 7.7 percent from the same period of 2011.

In the first quarter, the industrial added value at national scale increased by 11.6 percent calculating according to the comparable prices.

The fixed investment excluding the investment of farmers was nearly 4.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a nominal growth of almost 21 percent year-on-year and an actual growth of 18 percent after deducting price factors.

The total volume of social retail goods was 4.9 trillion yuan in the first quarter, a nominal growth of about 15 percent year-on-year and an actual growth of 11 percent if deducting price factors.

Peng Wensheng, chief economist of China International Capital Corporation Limited, said that although various economic indicators are stable at present, the autonomous economic growth is likely to decline due to the overlap of weak total demand and potential drop of growth rate.

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