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Low risk of hard landing for China's economy


13:22, June 08, 2012

While economic growth in China is projected to moderate to 8.3 percent in 2012, there is a low risk of a hard landing for China's economy, according to a UN report released here on Thursday by the United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs (DESA).

The UN World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2012 mid- year update said that, while growth in China is forecast to slow from 9.2 percent in 2011 to 8.3 percent in 2012, which constitutes a slight downward revision from the forecasts presented in the WESP 2012 in January, the risk of a hard landing of China's economy in the outlook period is low.

A slowing Chinese economy and weak demand in developed countries are likely to weigh on economic growth in East Asia. Average regional growth is projected to slow from 7.1 percent in 2011 to 6.5 percent in 2012. In 2013, the pace of growth is projected to pick up slightly as global demand recovers, with regional GDP forecast to expand by 6.9 percent, said the report.

According to the report, the economy of India, China's southern neighbor and the other of the two "engines" fueling regional growth, is forecast to expand by 6.7 percent in 2012, after growing by 7.1 percent in 2011.

The report noted that the world economic situation continues to be challenging. Following a marked slowdown in 2011, global growth will likely remain tepid in 2012, with most regions expanding at a pace below potential. In the baseline outlook, the world gross product (WGP) is projected to grow by 2.5 percent in 2012 and 3.1 percent in 2013, following growth of 2.7 percent in 2011.

WESP is a joint product of the DESA, the UN Conference on Trade and Development and the five UN regional commissions. It provides an overview of recent global economic performance and short-term prospects for the world economy and of some key global economic policy and development issues. The WESP mid-2012 is an update of the WESP released in January 2012.


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