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Entrepreneur Confidence Index bounces back in Q1

By Zhu Jianhong (People's Daily)

14:14, April 12, 2012

Edited and translated by People's Daily Online

The Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ECI) rose but Enterprise Prosperity Index (EPI) declined in the first quarter of 2012, according to a report published on April 11 by the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center (CEMAC) under the National Bureau of Statistics of China.

The EPI was 127.3, down 0.5 points compared to that of the fourth quarter of 2011, and the decline rate was 7.3 percentage points lower than that of the fourth quarter of 2011. The EPI has stopped declining and leveled off after declining for a period.

The ECI was 123, up 2.1 points compared to that of the fourth quarter of 2011.

The EPIs of different industries of vary in the first quarter of 2012. The industries with high EPIs included the information transmission, software and information technologies industries. EPIs of most service industries were higher than those of normal industries. EPIs of the light industries closely connecting with the consumption such as the food, medicine and tobacco industries were higher than those of the heavy industries closely connecting with the investment such as the iron and steel, cement and chemical industries.

According to analysis by the associate director of the CEMAC Pan Jiancheng, the EPI of 127.3 was higher than the critical point of 100, indicating that China's macroeconomic operation situation reflected by the EPI is still in a prosperous zone. Second, the EPI had dropped by 0.5 point compared to the preceding quarter, indicating that although the enterprise prosperity situation had declined, it had declined only a little bit and it is still steady fundamentally.

The ECI is an index of entrepreneurs' confidences on the macro-economy coming from entrepreneurs' judgments on their own industries. In the period of economic decline, the ECI is usually lower than the EPI, indicating that entrepreneurs' worries on the macroeconomic situation are usually magnified. According to Pan's analysis, the ECI of the first quarter of 2012 was 123, down 2.1 points compared to that of the fourth quarter of 2011, showing to an extent that entrepreneurs' confidences are recovering.


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