The gross domestic product (GDP) of China hits 47.2 trillion yuan in 2011, 9.2 percent higher than 2010 calculating at comparable prices, according to the economic data issued by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Tuesday.
In 2011 China’s GDP increased 9.4 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, 9.5 percent in the second quarter, 9.1 percent in the third quarter and 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter.
In 2011, the first industry contributed 4.7 trillion yuan to GDP, up 4.5 percent than 2010, while the second industry contributed 22 trillion yuan, up 10.6 percent and the third industry 20.3 trillion yuan, up 8.9 percent.
“Because of the drop in demand, there is little doubt that China will see an economic slowdown in 2012. My forecast is that economic growth rate in 2012 will stand at 8.5 percent or less,” said Wang Xiaolu, deputy director of National Economic Research Institute
Affected by American and European economic woes, the growth rate of export will continue to slow down. China’s foreign trade may negatively contribute to economic growth, Wang said.
The high investment rate has caused overcapacity, making investment no longer an effective way to boost the economy. And although consumption and investment has kept growing, they cannot avert the continuing decline of the spending power, Wang said.
Shen Jianguang, director of Mizuho Securities in Asia, agreed with Wang’s view. He said: “The foreign economic situation shows no signs of recovery this year, so China is unlikely to maintain the export-driven growth model.”
He said the actual export growth of China may draw close to zero.