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People's Daily Online>>China Business

Gold prices likely to rise, not fall next year

By Ye Xiaonan (People's Daily Overseas Edition)

16:27, November 16, 2011

Edited and translated by People's Daily Online

Beijing, Nov.16 (People's Daily Online) --Global gold prices saw sharp fluctuations in 2011 and have risen more than 30 percent so far this year. Certain institutions even predicted that the prices could hit 2,000 U.S. dollars per ounce by the end of the year.

It is also worth noting that the gold prices in 2011 have often witnessed deviations from normal seasonal variations, which is quite disturbing to many analysts.

Liu Yuning, deputy general manager of the Jingyi Gold Company, said that the fluctuations in gold prices over the past 10 months indicate that the internal structure of the gold market is changing.

"Gold prices are likely to remain high over the next few years. Whether the prices can rise to 2,000 U.S. dollars per ounce or even higher mainly depends on how the United States and Europe will solve their debt problems. If the U.S. dollar continues to depreciate, gold prices will likely reach 2,000 U.S. dollars per ounce," Sun Zhaoxue, president of China National Gold Group Corporation, said in an interview.

However, high prices also mean high risks, as gold prices have already witnessed sharp fluctuations this year. Analysts said that although it is still too early to predict the trend of gold prices next year, it is certain that gold prices next year are more likely to rise than fall and will witness sharper fluctuations.

Sun said that China is becoming the world's fastest growing gold market. The Shanghai Gold Exchange, which was established about a decade ago, has become the world's largest floor market for trading spot gold, and the transaction volume of gold futures trading, which was launched three years ago, ranked sixth in the world. China's gold transaction volume exceeded 14,000 tons in 2010, with a total trading value of 3.8 trillion yuan.

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