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ADB lowers economic growth prediction of China

(Beijing News)

15:09, September 15, 2011

Edited and translated by Yao Chun, People's Daily Online

Asian Development Bank (ADB) cuts China’s economic growth forecast to 9.3 percent for the year from its previously estimated 9.6 percent and raises the annual inflation rate of China to 5.3 percent from its previously estimated 4.6 percent, the 2011 Asian Development Outlook released by ADB on Wednesday revealed.

Due to the monetary tightening and weak external demand, China’s economic growth has slowed down and the situation is estimated to last till 2012. ADB also lowered its estimate for the country's economic growth to 9.1 percent from 9.2 for the next year.

The report indicates that the risk of the China’s economic growth slowdown will mainly result from diminished external demands, particularly, the uncertain demand from European Union.

Food prices will rise more than expected. Non-food inflation will peak in July while food inflation will peak in August, the report said.

Inflationary pressures may ease in the second half of this year. It is expected that combined with the fall-off of global commodities’ prices and the appreciation of China's currency, the yuan, the inflation rate is likely to skip down to 4.2 percent in 2012.

And, the report said that the sustainable development of China’s economy might be impacted by the increase of China's increasingly aging population.

From 1975 to 2005, China's total population dependency ratio fell by almost half, which is the biggest decline the world has ever recorded. China has become an aging society since 2000. The country's working-age population will peak in 2015, and labor shortages will become more common thereafter.


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